Brent crude has climbed above $100 again, and this time the market is reacting to real supply pressure, not speculation. The continued U.S. blockade around the Strait of Hormuz, following the collapse of talks with Iran, has slowed down cargo movement and tightened available barrels in the global market. What we are seeing now is a direct supply squeeze, and traders are already factoring that into prices.
As at the time of writing 04:15 PM (WAT), Brent crude is trading at $101.40 per barrel, while WTI stands at $92.19 per barrel. The market is clearly firm. Buyers are scrambling for prompt cargoes, and once that happens, prices don’t stay flat. The disruption around Hormuz has reduced confidence in steady supply, and that alone is enough to keep prices elevated.
Back home, the impact is already playing out. Checks by Petroleumprice.ng show that AGO prices across Lagos depots have moved up, with Ibachem and Duport selling at ₦1,850 per litre. This is not coincidence, it is a direct response to rising landing costs and the fear of expensive replacement cargoes.
There is also a deeper issue in the market. A number of depots are running low on stock, and supply is not keeping up with demand. Both AGO and PMS are under pressure, with strong offtake from transporters, manufacturers and power users. Once stock starts thinning like this, prices rarely stay where they are.
From all indications, this is not the peak yet. If Brent holds above $100 and the Hormuz situation remains unresolved, depot owners will adjust again. The signals in the market already point to another round of increases, possibly as early as tomorrow, as operators try to stay ahead of rising costs.