International crude oil prices climbed again on Friday, reversing earlier losses as renewed geopolitical tensions involving Iran and prolonged supply disruptions in Kazakhstan rekindled concerns over global oil availability.
As of 3:00 pm WAT, Brent crude was trading at $65.71 per barrel, up $1.65 or 2.58%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $60.97 per barrel, gaining $1.61 or 2.71%. Both benchmarks were on track to close the week with gains of about 1.5–1.6%.
The rebound followed comments by U.S. President Donald Trump, who renewed warnings against Iran, raising fears of potential military escalation that could disrupt supplies from one of OPEC’s key producers.
Iran Risks Return to the Fore
Market sentiment shifted after President Trump said the United States has an “armada” heading toward Iran, even as he expressed hope that force would not be required. U.S. officials later confirmed that warships, including an aircraft carrier and guided-missile destroyers, are en route to the Middle East and expected to arrive in the coming days.
The remarks revived concerns about supply risks from Iran, which produces about 3.2 million barrels per day, making it OPEC’s fourth-largest producer after Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates. Iran also remains a major crude supplier to China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer.
Earlier in the week, oil prices had fallen sharply after Trump eased tariff threats against Europe and ruled out immediate military action, including over Greenland. However, renewed rhetoric toward Tehran reversed Thursday’s losses, highlighting the oil market’s sensitivity to geopolitical signals.
Trump has also stepped up economic pressure on Iran, announcing 25% tariffs on any country doing business with Tehran, a move that raised fresh questions about the security of Iranian crude exports.
Kazakhstan Disruptions Add to Supply Strain
Supply concerns deepened further as oil output at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oilfield, one of the world’s largest, remained offline following a fire earlier in the week. Chevron-led operator Tengizchevroil (TCO) confirmed that production has yet to resume.
The outage compounds existing challenges for Kazakhstan’s oil sector, already strained by export bottlenecks at its main Black Sea outlet, which has suffered damage from Ukrainian drone attacks.
According to JP Morgan, Tengiz — which accounts for nearly half of Kazakhstan’s total oil production — could remain shut for the rest of the month. The bank estimates that Kazakhstan’s crude output may average just 1.0 to 1.1 million barrels per day in January, far below its typical level of around 1.8 million barrels per day.
Volatility Returns to the Oil Market
The combination of renewed Middle East tensions and unplanned supply outages has reintroduced volatility into crude markets, overriding earlier concerns about oversupply.
Analysts note that any disruption to Iranian exports would hit China hardest, given its heavy reliance on Iranian crude. Such a scenario would come on top of tighter availability of Venezuelan oil, following increased U.S. control over exports from the South American producer.
The latest price swings underscore how geopolitical developments continue to outweigh fundamentals in shaping short-term oil market direction, with traders reacting swiftly to shifts in rhetoric and supply risks.