For many Nigerians, flying may soon shift from convenience to luxury, as mounting pressure from soaring aviation fuel prices pushes airlines closer to a difficult decision. What began as a distant ripple from the Middle East crisis is now hitting home, threatening to reshape ticket pricing and air travel demand across the country.
At the centre of the crisis is Jet A1, the lifeblood of airline operations, which has recorded a dramatic spike of over 100 per cent within weeks. The product, previously sold between ₦900 and ₦995 per litre before the outbreak of the Iran-linked conflict, with the current reality Jet A1 may surge beyond ₦2,000.
According to the Punch, Operators say the surge has significantly altered their cost structure. Aviation fuel, once accounting for about 30 to 35 per cent of total expenses, is now nearing 45 per cent, making it the dominant cost driver. Despite this, many airlines have maintained average ticket prices at around ₦195,000, a move industry insiders say cannot be sustained for much longer.
Airline executives warn that if the current trajectory persists especially with fuel prices edging towards ₦3,000 per litre some operators may be forced to cut capacity or suspend operations altogether. Those that remain in service are expected to adjust fares upward, with projections indicating a possible 20 to 25 per cent increase in ticket prices in the near term.
The pressure is further fuelled by rising global crude oil prices, which have climbed sharply from about $65–$69 per barrel to around $112 amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. As costs ripple through the aviation value chain, passengers are likely to face higher fares, signalling a new phase of strained affordability in Nigeria’s air travel sector.