Brent crude has returned to $110 per barrel for the first time since May, raising fresh concerns over petrol pricing in Nigeria as refiners and importers face the prospect of higher replacement costs. If international prices sustain their current levels, Dangote Refinery and independent depot operators could come under pressure to review their selling prices to reflect the cost of replenishing supplies.
As at the time of writing 6:37 am (WAT), Brent crude was trading at $110.10 per barrel, up 0.25 per cent, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $103.00 per barrel, gaining 1.59 per cent.
The rally has been driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, concerns over the security of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty surrounding global supply. Attacks on vessels and energy infrastructure have heightened fears that disruptions could tighten crude availability and keep prices elevated.
For Nigeria’s downstream market, the key concern is replacement cost: the amount refiners, importers and marketers must spend to replenish products already sold. When international crude and refined-product prices rise, replacement costs can increase even before operators exhaust their existing inventories. Businesses may then review selling prices to reflect the higher cost of securing their next supplies and maintaining commercially sustainable margins.
The market’s experience in May offers a useful reference point. On May 6, 2026, the depot prices provided to PetroleumPrice.ng showed petrol at ₦1,287 per litre at Integrated, Ascon and Bono, and ₦1,285 at Nipco. Automotive gas oil (AGO), or diesel, was listed at ₦1,950 per litre at Nipco.
That same day, Dangote Refinery’s petrol price was reported to have risen from ₦1,275 to ₦1,350 per litre. The ₦75 adjustment illustrated how changes in the refinery’s pricing template could influence downstream market expectations. However, the refinery subsequently reversed the announced increase, returning its price to ₦1,275 per litre after crude prices fell sharply. This episode shows that pricing decisions depend not only on the prevailing crude price but also on its direction and expectations surrounding future supply costs.
With Brent now back at $110, Dangote Refinery and independent depot operators could face renewed pressure to reassess their pricing if the rally feeds into actual feedstock, product procurement and replacement costs. Importers may also have to pay more for incoming cargoes if international petrol benchmarks, freight charges and other landing costs increase. These pressures could be passed on to depot buyers where operators cannot absorb the additional costs.
However, a sustained increase in crude prices does not automatically translate into an immediate or uniform rise in petrol prices. Refinery pricing also depends on feedstock costs, refining margins, product yields, exchange rates and operating expenses. Importers must consider international petrol benchmarks, freight, insurance, financing and foreign-exchange costs. Local competition, existing stock positions and product availability can influence how quickly these changes reach depot prices.
The distinction between crude and refined-product prices is important. Petrol prices do not move in a fixed one-to-one relationship with Brent crude because refining margins and regional product supply conditions can change independently. If refined-product prices rise faster than crude, import replacement costs may increase more sharply. Conversely, lower product benchmarks or a retreat in crude prices could ease some of the pressure.
For marketers, the immediate issue is whether Brent can sustain its latest advance and whether the rally translates into higher prices for petrol cargoes and domestic refinery feedstock. If international prices remain around current levels or rise further, upward reviews of ex-depot prices become a greater risk. A reversal in crude prices, lower product benchmarks or improved supply availability could moderate that pressure.
Brent’s return to $110 therefore puts Nigeria’s downstream pricing structure on alert. Although the crude-price movement alone does not confirm a fresh increase by Dangote Refinery or depot operators, sustained increases in replacement costs could make higher selling prices increasingly likely as operators replenish their stocks.