Global crude oil prices rebounded on Tuesday after reports of fresh US military strikes on Iran revived geopolitical concerns and restored some of the risk premium that had recently been stripped from the oil market.
As at the time of writing 07:30 am (WAT) Brent crude futures rose 1.03% to $105.80 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 1.06% to $97.48 per barrel, according to Oilprice.com market data.
The recovery followed a previous session in which crude oil prices shed approximately 7% as traders responded to renewed diplomatic efforts to end the conflict involving the United States and Iran. However, a Wall Street Journal report that Washington had carried out strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island challenged expectations of an immediate diplomatic breakthrough.
The report, citing unnamed US officials, described the strikes as part of a series of limited military operations Washington had secretly conducted against Iran in recent weeks. The development raised fresh questions about the prospects for de-escalation and the security of energy supplies from the Middle East.
According to Reuters, KCM Trade analyst Tim Waterer said the report had introduced additional risk premium into crude prices after markets began positioning for a possible diplomatic resolution.
The renewed price recovery highlights the sensitivity of global oil markets to developments in the US-Iran conflict, particularly given the scale of supply disruptions already experienced during the war. The conflict has severely affected global oil and gas flows, keeping energy security concerns firmly in focus.
However, analysts caution that geopolitical headlines alone may not sustain another significant rally unless they translate into additional disruptions to physical oil supplies or critical energy infrastructure.
Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva, quoted by Reuters, noted that further price increases would require concrete evidence of additional supply disruptions, suggesting that much of the existing geopolitical risk premium may already be reflected in current market prices.
For oil-importing countries such as Nigeria, renewed volatility in international crude benchmarks carries implications for domestic fuel pricing, import costs and broader energy market stability. Further escalation could also complicate crude supply planning and increase uncertainty across global petroleum product markets.
The direction of crude prices will therefore remain closely tied to developments around the conflict, diplomatic negotiations and the security of critical energy supply routes.