Oil marketers are increasingly anticipating lower petrol gantry prices as the sharp decline in international crude oil prices improves the outlook for petroleum product procurement costs. The market expectation comes as Dangote Petroleum Refinery has already reduced its diesel gantry price by ₦120 per litre to ₦1,720, raising attention across the downstream sector to whether a similar adjustment could follow for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS).
Petrol prices at private depots in Lagos declined on Monday as oil marketers adjusted their selling rates amid a sharp correction in international crude prices, raising expectations of further reductions in the downstream market this Tuesday. With Brent crude recording a steep decline during Monday’s trading session, marketers are watching for another round of price adjustments as competition and replacement-cost considerations put pressure on depot prices.
As at the time of writing at 6:50 am (WAT) on Tuesday, November 10, Brent crude futures traded at $91.97 per barrel, down 0.65 per cent, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 0.76 per cent to $86.19 per barrel.
Brent had plunged by approximately 7 per cent during Monday’s trading session as renewed reports of diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran raised expectations of a possible de-escalation in the Middle East. The reported mediation efforts involving Qatar and Pakistan revived hopes of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme and a possible ceasefire, easing some of the geopolitical risk premium in crude prices.
The decline in crude prices coincided with downward adjustments in Lagos depot petrol prices. Pinnacle opened Monday’s trading at ₦1,277 per litre, while African Terminal and Integrated initially quoted ₦1,272 per litre. Techno Oil and Ascon opened at ₦1,270 per litre, alongside subsequent ₦1,270 quotations from African Terminal and Integrated.
By the close of trading, African Terminal and Integrated had reduced their prices to ₦1,265 per litre from ₦1,272, representing a decrease of ₦7 or approximately 0.55 per cent. Their subsequent ₦1,270 opening quotations also fell to ₦1,265, a ₦5 reduction or 0.39 per cent. Ascon similarly lowered its price from ₦1,270 to ₦1,265 per litre, representing a 0.39 per cent decline.
Other private depot prices at the close included Aiteo at ₦1,250 per litre and 11Plc at ₦1,252. Across the depots with comparable opening and closing quotations, the average price fell by ₦6.33 per litre, or approximately 0.50 per cent, from an average opening price of ₦1,271.33 to ₦1,265.
The latest adjustments suggest that the downstream market is beginning to respond to the easing international price environment. However, the extent of further reductions will depend on how quickly lower crude and refined-product benchmarks feed into replacement costs, as well as movements in the naira, freight and other supply expenses.
The diplomatic optimism behind the crude sell-off remains uncertain. Al Arabiya reported that Washington and Tehran were considering a proposal involving a 3.67 per cent uranium enrichment limit for Iran, alongside discussions about the return of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors. Neither government confirmed the reported agreement, while a senior Qatari official reportedly disputed details of the proposal.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy confirmed that its East-West oil pipeline was targeted in the Medina region on Monday, causing a limited fire. Authorities said emergency teams extinguished the blaze without casualties or disruption to pipeline operations. The pipeline provides Saudi Arabia with an alternative crude export route through the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
For Nigerian petrol marketers, the immediate focus is whether the latest international price correction will trigger another round of depot reductions and eventually influence refinery gantry prices. With several Lagos depots already closing below their opening quotations on Monday, further adjustments remain possible as trading resumes this morning.
