Global oil prices climbed above the $100 per barrel mark on Thursday for the first time in nearly two months, reinforcing expectations of another upward adjustment in Nigeria's depot and retail fuel prices as higher international crude prices continue to raise replacement costs.
As of 4:40 p.m. WAT, Brent crude traded at $101.10 per barrel, up 7.43 percent, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 6.77 percent to $92.71 per barrel, extending a rally that has lifted global benchmark prices by about 20 percent over the past two weeks.
The latest surge followed renewed attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea after Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi movement claimed responsibility for striking two Saudi oil tankers transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, heightening concerns over crude exports from the Middle East.
The waterway has become increasingly critical for Saudi Arabia after the kingdom redirected a substantial portion of its crude exports from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea export terminal at Yanbu to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Following the attacks, several tankers reportedly altered their routes or delayed transit, raising concerns over longer shipping times, higher freight costs and tighter crude supplies.
Supply concerns have also widened beyond the Middle East. Kazakhstan has reportedly begun cutting oil production after drone attacks disrupted tanker loadings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on the Black Sea. Indian state refiners have suspended Iraqi crude loadings because of shipping risks around Hormuz, while Russian fuel exports remain constrained following months of attacks on refinery infrastructure.
The tightening physical market has further supported prices. Strategic petroleum reserves released by several governments since the conflict escalated have reduced emergency stockpiles, commercial inventories have continued to decline, and China has increasingly relied on previously accumulated reserves rather than fresh imports.
The impact is already beginning to reflect in Nigeria's downstream market. Checks by Petroleumprice.ng show that trading activity for Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) across several Lagos depots slowed significantly on Thursday, with a number of marketers, particularly around the Coconut axis, suspending sales amid expectations of higher replacement costs. Before the temporary halt, Aiteo and Ibeto quoted AGO at ₦1,700 per litre, while Wosbab and Menj were selling at ₦1,650 per litre.
Industry sources said many depot operators have adopted a wait-and-see approach as they monitor developments in the international oil market, with expectations that fresh price adjustments could emerge when trading resumes next week.
Brent's return above $100 per barrel represents a significant shift from earlier market expectations that diplomatic engagement between the United States and Iran would ease tensions and stabilise global oil supplies.
For Nigeria, where fuel prices track international crude, exchange rates, and replacement costs closely, the current rally is likely to lead to an upward adjustment in both depot and pump prices in the coming days.