Rising global crude oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are beginning to shape sentiment across Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, with oil marketers and depot operators anticipating a possible upward adjustment in fuel prices.
Global oil benchmarks continued their upward trend on Wednesday morning. As of 8:00 a.m. West Africa Time (WAT), Brent crude traded at $83.14 per barrel, up $1.74 or 2.14 per cent, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $76.58 per barrel, gaining $1.92 or 2.57 per cent, according to market data from Oilprice.com.
The steady climb in global crude prices has pushed Brent closer to the $85 per barrel threshold, heightening concerns within Nigeria’s downstream market about the possibility of fresh adjustments to depot-level fuel prices.
Market participants say the surge in crude prices has been largely driven by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, alongside growing uncertainty surrounding diplomatic negotiations between both countries. The geopolitical friction has raised fears of potential disruptions to global oil supply, particularly around critical energy transit routes in the Gulf region.
Marketers Signal Cautious Trading
Sources within the downstream sector told Petroleumprice.ng that importers and depot owners have begun adopting a cautious trading strategy while closely monitoring global oil developments.
According to industry operators, some importers are securing additional product volumes but limiting immediate sales as they anticipate that further increases in international crude prices could trigger a revision of depot prices.
“The attention in the downstream market is currently on the global oil situation. With Brent crude approaching $85 per barrel and geopolitical tensions rising, many marketers believe prices may move upward,” a depot operator familiar with the market dynamics said.
Industry participants added that uncertainty surrounding potential negotiations between Iran and the United States has heightened concerns that supply disruptions in the Middle East could tighten global petroleum product availability.
Lagos Depot Prices
Depot data monitored by Petroleumprice.ng on March 4, 2026, indicates petrol (PMS) and diesel (AGO) prices across Lagos depots as market tension intensifies.
For petrol, Dangote depot sold PMS at ₦878.5 per litre, Techno Oil depot at ₦890 per litre, while Nipco depot priced the product at ₦895 per litre.
In the diesel segment, Ibeto depot sold AGO at ₦1,065 per litre, Duport depot offered the product at ₦1,065 per litre, while Ibachem depot priced diesel at ₦1,063 per litre.
Depot Prices in Other Regions
Across other key supply hubs, depot prices reflected a similar cautious market posture.
In Warri, petrol at Matrix depot was priced at ₦928 per litre, while Prudent depot sold PMS at ₦921 per litre. In the diesel market, Prudent depot sold AGO at ₦1,250 per litre, while Edo Refinery priced AGO at ₦1,130 per litre.
In Calabar, Dozzy depot sold PMS at ₦920 per litre, while Matrix depot priced PMS at ₦930 per litre. Diesel prices showed Rain Oil at ₦1,120 per litre and Zamson depot at ₦1,120 per litre.
Meanwhile, in Port Harcourt, Masters depot offered PMS at ₦925 per litre, while Matrix depot priced PMS at ₦935 per litre. For diesel, Matrix depot sold AGO at ₦1,350 per litre, while Rain Oil depot offered AGO at ₦1,120 per litre.
Market Outlook
Industry analysts say the broader sentiment across the downstream sector remains cautious as operators track global developments in the oil market.
Recent security concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime corridor responsible for transporting nearly one-fifth of global oil supply, have heightened market sensitivity amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Although depot prices have yet to reflect significant adjustments, market participants say sustained increases in crude oil benchmarks could eventually filter into Nigeria’s domestic fuel market.
For now, industry operators say the downstream sector remains in a watchful phase, with traders assessing global oil price movements and geopolitical developments that may determine the direction of fuel prices in the coming days.