Global oil prices surged this week, with Brent Crude crossing the $70 per barrel mark, raising fresh concerns about an imminent uptick in fuel prices across import-reliant markets like Nigeria. As of 9:00 AM (WAT) on Monday, Brent traded at $71.00 (+0 91%), while WTI rose to $69.14 (+1.01%). Murban Crude also edged higher to $72.21 (+0.92%), and natural gas spiked by 4..53% to $3.464/MMBtu, according to Oilprice.com.
This bullish trend defied analyst expectations after OPEC+ announced a significant production hike, adding over 500,000 barrels per day to global supply. However, tightening inventories and strong seasonal demand continue to sustain upward pressure on prices.
Market Tightness Persists Despite OPEC+ Hike
Contrary to earlier forecasts predicting a supply glut, the global oil market remains structurally tight. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that OECD crude inventories are still 97 million barrels below last year’s levels, while U.S. diesel stocks remain 23% under the five-year seasonal average.
Energy experts argue that the market has absorbed the new OPEC+ supply with ease, highlighting strong demand fundamentals and undersupplied downstream segments particularly in distillates like diesel.
“Even with the extra barrels, we haven’t seen major builds in global inventories. That tells us the market genuinely needs this oil,” said UAE Energy Minister Suhail al Mazrouei at the OPEC Seminar in Vienna.
Analysts Warn of Diesel Supply Gap
Refinery run cuts in late 2024 triggered diesel shortages across the U.S. and Europe. Analysts at Sparta Commodities and BOK Financial say refineries may struggle to catch up with demand especially with cold weather and logistical constraints lingering into Q3.
“Refiners were behind the curve. When they catch up, it may happen at higher prices,” noted Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial.
Nigeria’s Import Burden Could Deepen
With Brent above $70, Nigeria which still imports most of its PMS, AGO, LPG, and ATK may face higher landing costs. This is especially concerning given exchange rate volatility and thin downstream margins.
However, as Petroleumprice.ng research shows, crude oil prices alone do not determine local fuel prices. Over the past year, Nigeria’s depot prices have reacted both rationally and irrationally to global price swings.
Historical Patterns: Crude Surges, But Prices Don’t Always Follow
In August 2023, Brent hovered at $87, yet PMS depot prices dropped from ₦617 to ₦580, driven by spot market discounts and forex support.
In February 2024, with Brent above $84, depot prices still fell by ₦25–₦30/litre, supported by offshore inflows.
Between June 10–16, 2025, Brent fell from $74.87 to $73.14, yet depot prices rose by ₦40–₦60/litre, as traders speculated ahead of Dangote’s PFI issuance.
On June 21, 2025, Dangote hiked its ex-depot price to ₦880/litre despite Brent’s 2% drop. This move led to widespread increases across Lagos and Warri depots.
Depot Prices Today (July 14, 2025)
According to Petroleumprice.ng’s live tracker, ex-depot prices as of today are as follows:
| Product | Depot Price (₦/Litre) |
|---|---|
| PMS | 820 |
| AGO | 1,020 – 1,050 |
| LPG | 820 – 865 |
| ATK | 985– 1,025 |
These figures represent average rates across key depots in Lagos, Satellite Town, Dockyard, Warri, and Port Harcourt. Prices may vary slightly depending on volume and credit terms.
Outlook: Short-Term Bullish, Long-Term Mixed
While the market remains tight during this northern hemisphere summer, ING and other commodity desks forecast a surplus in Q4, especially if OPEC+ pauses production hikes after September.
OPEC recently lowered its 2026 demand forecast to 106.3 million bpd, down from 108 million bpd, citing slower Chinese growth and renewables momentum.
“Right now, if you look out the window, this market is tight,” said Rapidan Energy’s Bob McNally, pointing to high usage and supply lag.
Final Word for Nigerian Consumers
Despite the Brent surge, local fuel prices may not increase immediately. As history shows, depot owners have at times absorbed higher crude costs or even dropped prices to stay competitive—especially when PFI availability, local inventory, or logistics costs shift in favour of marketers.
That said, if Brent continues upward and forex remains tight, expect possible depot price adjustments by mid-July. PMS, AGO, LPG, and ATK may all trend upward unless relieved by new supply inflows or FX reprieve.
Consumers and marketers should monitor:
- Brent and WTI benchmark fluctuations
- Dangote Refinery’s pricing and shipment timelines
- NMDPRA pricing framework
- Depot trends via Petroleumprice.ng daily updates