Brent crude futures fell toward $100 per barrel on Wednesday as markets reacted to President Donald Trump’s Republican Party losing control of both chambers of the U.S. Congress, while investors continued to assess the outlook for the Iran war and Middle East oil supplies.
At 4:10 p.m. WAT, Brent futures were down 2.66% at $100.80 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 2.70% to $93.50.
The sell-off followed a sweeping Democratic victory in the U.S. midterm elections, which gives the party greater power to block legislation, investigate the administration and oppose Trump’s judicial and senior government appointments. The result has raised uncertainty over the president’s next policy moves, including his approach to the conflict with Iran.
Trump acknowledged that the war had contributed to his party’s defeat. Oil traders were weighing whether the election outcome could prompt Washington to pursue a less confrontational course toward Tehran.
Analysts said the market was also responding to signs that diplomatic efforts could help ease the conflict. Qatar has intensified mediation, although a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday that Tehran and Washington remained far from reaching an agreement.
Trump told the Financial Times that the United States had no immediate plans to strike Iran. However, market participants remained alert to the possibility of renewed U.S. and Israeli attacks.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in a written statement that U.S. hostility would continue regardless of which party held power. Yemen’s Houthis also claimed to have targeted King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, although Saudi authorities had not confirmed the report.
The latest price decline follows Brent’s settlement at its lowest level in nearly four weeks in the previous session, as traders considered prospects for peace talks in both Iran and Ukraine.
Supply developments have also weighed on prices. Gulf exports of crude oil, condensate and refined products, excluding liquefied petroleum gas, averaged 17.1 million barrels per day in October, according to Vortexa ship-tracking data. That was below September’s 18.9 million bpd but remained around three-quarters of pre-war levels.
Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said the recovery in Middle Eastern crude shipments was putting pressure on physical cargo prices and could help normalise refining margins, potentially easing fuel prices. He cautioned that refined-product exports from regional refineries would also need to recover for consumers to receive the full benefit.
In the United States, crude inventories fell by 5.27 million barrels in the week ended October 30, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute cited by market sources. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected stocks to rise by about 880,000 barrels.
Despite the inventory draw, traders remained focused on political developments in Washington and the prospect of a negotiated end to the Iran war, with further progress in diplomacy likely to influence crude prices.
