Global oil prices are on course for a fourth consecutive monthly gain as escalating Middle East tensions, reported attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and fears of renewed hostilities involving Iran heighten concerns over supply disruptions.
Brent crude rose 11 per cent in October, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 14 per cent, according to Reuters figures cited in the report. Since the end of June, Brent has climbed by about $40 per barrel, while WTI has increased by $34.
Market concerns have intensified ahead of the November 3 US midterm elections, amid reports that President Donald Trump has raised the possibility of renewed strikes against Iran after the vote. Media reports have also indicated that the US and Israel are coordinating over potential military action, adding to uncertainty over the region’s oil supply outlook.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a key source of concern following reports of tanker attacks in the strategic waterway. Any escalation that disrupts shipping through the passage could affect crude and petroleum product flows from the Gulf, with implications for international prices and importing countries.
Reports of Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities have further heightened market anxiety. Damage to production sites, processing plants or export infrastructure could create supply disruptions that may prove difficult to resolve through alternative routes alone.
Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee, said continued military activity around the Strait of Hormuz and doubts over diplomatic progress were helping to keep oil prices elevated, with markets anticipating a risk of further escalation in the coming weeks.
Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank noted that Gulf oil exports had remained relatively resilient, supported by alternative routes and logistical adjustments. However, he warned that further attacks on critical infrastructure could undermine that resilience and cause more significant disruptions.
For oil-importing economies such as Nigeria, sustained increases in international crude prices could raise the cost of imported petroleum products and put pressure on domestic fuel prices, depending on exchange-rate movements, freight costs, refining margins and local market conditions.
The near-term direction of oil prices will depend heavily on developments in the Middle East, the security of shipping routes and whether diplomatic efforts can contain the risk of further military action.