Brent crude crossed the $70 per barrel mark on Tuesday, rekindling concerns over potential price hikes at Nigerian depots. With global oil benchmarks rebounding on tightening supply and geopolitical risk, industry watchers say local fuel markets could react within hours.
As of 11:00 a.m. WAT, Brent traded at $70.41, gaining 0.53%, while WTI climbed to $67.13, up 0.63%. The price rally, underpinned by falling U.S. rig counts and unrest in Eastern Europe, signals renewed upward momentum in global oil markets.
Depot Markets on Alert
Despite growing local refining capacity, about half of Nigeria’s daily fuel demand is still met through imported refined products or feedstock priced in dollars. As such, even modest shifts in crude prices ripple quickly through ex-depot pricing structures.
Industry sources say PMS and diesel prices at major Nigerian depots could rise by ₦10–₦20 per litre in the coming days.
“Once Brent crossed $70, depots begin to factor in replacement cost,” a depot manager in Apapa told Petroleumprice.ng. “By Tuesday afternoon, we’ll see price recalibrations.”
Historical Precedents Reinforce Market Anxiety
A review of past market cycles supports the likelihood of imminent upward adjustments.
In April 2025, when Brent fell to $65, the lowest since 2021, depot prices responded immediately. Key petroleum marketers slashed rates across the board:
- PMS: Dangote ₦891 (₦4.5 drop), AIPEC ₦897 (₦3), AITEO ₦894 (₦2)
- Diesel (AGO): Dangote ₦1,022 (₦2 drop), WOSBAB ₦1,017 (₦2), IBETO ₦1,015 (₦3)
This decline reflected traders’ efforts to avoid stockpiling high-cost fuel amid a bearish crude market.
But by May 6,2025, the landscape shifted dramatically. A new rally, driven by a U.S.-China tariff deal, saw Brent surge 3.69% to $66.27 and WTI climb 4.03% to $63.48. Depot prices quickly followed suit:
- PMS:
- Lagos (Rainoil): ₦870, up ₦31 from ₦839
- Warri (Matrix): ₦890, up ₦35
- Calabar (Fynefield): ₦905, up ₦35
- Port Harcourt (Ever): ₦896, up ₦30
- AGO:
- Lagos: Rainoil ₦970 (+₦45), Aiteo ₦960 (+₦47)
- Warri: Matrix ₦975, Taurus ₦974 (+₦15 each)
Marketers warn that with Brent now above $70, similar hikes are imminent unless the Naira strengthens or domestic supply increases.
A past Arise TV interview with Petroleumprice.ng CEO, Olatide Jeremiah, remains relevant:
Crude oil prices influence depot rates, which in turn affect retail pump prices. So, if crude drops by more than 10%, we expect depot prices to fall and retail pump prices to follow.”
Refineries Offer Stability, But Not Immunity
The Dangote Refinery has created a measure of stability since beginning PMS supply. Through post-loading rebates and bulk sale discounts, it has shielded consumers from some global shocks. However, its pricing strategy still factors in international crude trends.
“Local refineries give us volume stability, but they price with an eye on global benchmarks,” said a Depot marketer in Port harcourt. “Even Dangote’s products aren’t entirely immune.”
The refinery’s growing export footprint also limits how much of its output stays in the domestic market, reinforcing the relevance of import-linked pricing.
Volatility Still Rules
If Brent remains above $70, industry projections suggest depot prices could climb sharply before the week’s end. Marketers may pass these costs to retail outlets, especially in inland cities like Jos, Makurdi, or Sokoto, where transport expenses compound depot-level increases.
While the risk of acute scarcity has eased, price shocks remain an embedded feature of Nigeria’s liberalized downstream sector. Experts call for better foreign exchange management, coordinated supply chain planning, and emergency stockpiles to cushion future disruptions.
Price Stability Requires Policy Support
Rising crude prices underline the urgent need for deeper structural reforms. Until Nigeria can consistently meet domestic fuel demand through stable, cost-reflective local refining, global oil swings will continue to dictate depot and pump prices—often overnight.