The crude supply agreement between Dangote Petroleum Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) is facing growing strain, following a significant shortfall in feedstock deliveries. Findings show the refinery recorded a deficit of about 79.53 million barrels between October 2025 and mid-March 2026, raising concerns about the sustainability of local refining operations.
Data from sources within the refinery indicate that the 650,000-barrel-per-day facility requires about 19.77 million barrels monthly to operate optimally. However, actual deliveries have consistently fallen below expectations, with total supply over the five-and-a-half-month period standing at just 29.21 million barrels, compared to an estimated requirement of 108.74 million barrels a performance level of only 26.9 percent.
Monthly supply trends further highlight the gap. The refinery received 4.55 million barrels in October, 6.45 million in November, 4.30 million in December, 5.65 million in January, and 4.66 million in February, while only 3.6 million barrels were delivered between March 1 and 15. At best, deliveries accounted for between one-fifth and one-third of required volumes, leaving operations under pressure.
The financial implications are substantial. Using an average crude price of about $67.94 per barrel, the supplied volume was valued at approximately $1.98 billion, while the shortfall represents an estimated $5.40 billion in unmet crude value. Industry sources argue that such gaps undermine the refinery’s capacity to stabilise domestic fuel supply and prices.
The situation has also revived concerns about Nigeria’s crude allocation structure. Despite local refining needs, large volumes of crude continue to be exported. Data shows that about 306 million barrels were exported between January and October 2025 nearly 69 percent of total production leaving limited volumes available for domestic processors. Refinery operators maintain that this trend contradicts the intent of the Petroleum Industry Act, which prioritises local supply. While Dangote refinery has attributed recent fuel price increases to inadequate local crude supply and reliance on more expensive imports, NNPCL insists it is working to stabilise deliveries.
The national oil company says it is leveraging alternative sources, including third-party crude, to meet obligations. Stakeholders, however, stress that resolving supply constraints remains critical to boosting local refining capacity, reducing imports, and ensuring long-term energy security.