Nigeria’s domestic refineries, led by Dangote Petroleum Refinery, supplied a combined 29.116 million litres per day (MLD) of fuel, covering both Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) in November 2025, according to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
Data from the State of the Downstream Sector: NMDPRA Fact Sheet (November 2025) shows that Dangote and other local refiners evacuated an average of 23.520 MLD of PMS, significantly below the 35 MLD planned domestic supply benchmark announced in October 2024. Diesel (AGO) evacuation from domestic refineries averaged 5.596 MLD during the same period.
The figures underline the widening gap between planned refinery output and actual evacuation, even as domestic production continues to play a stabilising role in Nigeria’s downstream fuel supply.
PMS Supply Rebound Masks Refinery Shortfall
Despite a weaker-than-planned domestic evacuation, total PMS supply rebounded sharply in November. National daily PMS availability rose to 71.5 MLD, up from 46.0 MLD in October and 39.7 MLD in September, following supply tightness earlier in the quarter.
NMDPRA attributed the rebound largely to imports, which averaged 52.1 MLD in November, with NNPC Limited stepping in as supplier of last resort to rebuild stocks ahead of year-end demand. Twelve PMS vessels initially scheduled to discharge in October were delayed and discharged in November, further lifting supply.
Improved supply conditions translated into stronger stock cover. PMS days sufficiency increased to 16.5 days in November from 11.1 days in October, though still below the December 2024 peak of 22.8 days. Inland depots accounted for 12.3 days, reinforcing their dominant role, while marine stocks contributed 4.2 days after remaining volatile through most of 2025.
Average PMS consumption stood at 52.9 MLD in November, above the long-term average of 51.1 MLD, underscoring the continued pressure on supply despite higher imports.
AGO Remains Import-Led Despite Local Output
Diesel supply data points to a structurally import-dependent market. Total AGO supply averaged 20.4 MLD in November, with imports accounting for 14.1 MLD, while domestic refineries contributed 6.3 MLD, broadly in line with Dangote’s recorded 5.596 MLD evacuation.
Although domestic diesel output strengthened during mid-2025, imports dominated high-volume months such as March, October, and November. September recorded the weakest AGO supply at 12.2 MLD, highlighting ongoing volatility linked to logistics and refinery utilisation.
NMDPRA noted that all domestic supply figures are based on actual discharges, disports, and refinery truck-outs, not nameplate capacity. The regulator said closing the gap between planned and realised refinery output—particularly for PMS—will be critical to reducing import exposure, stabilising stock cover, and improving downstream resilience as Nigeria’s fuel market adjusts to pricing reforms and seasonal demand swings.