Crude receipts at Nigeria’s 650,000 b/d Dangote Petroleum Refinery fell to their lowest since April, according to Argus tracking, raising questions about delivery momentum in October.
Decline in September
The refinery received about 375,000 b/d in September, down from 440,000 b/d in August, representing a 15% drop. Receipts slowed notably in the second half of the month. Over the first nine months of 2025, deliveries averaged 420,000 b/d.
In September, the refinery took in 160,000 b/d of Nigerian grades, including Escravos, Bonny Light, and Amenam, and 215,000 b/d of US WTI. This marks the second time US crude outstripped Nigerian grades at the facility.
October Outlook
Dangote has already received a 2mn bl cargo of US WTI, discharged by the VLCC Eagle Victoria on 1 October. However, no other shipments are currently waiting to unload, with the next VLCC carrying 1.6mn bl expected on 26 October, according to Kpler data.
At this pace, crude intake aligns with the refinery’s running average — roughly equivalent to one tanker discharging every three days.
Background and Challenges
The refinery began sporadic crude receipts in late 2023, with regular supplies starting after March 2024. Operator Dangote Group has already surpassed its first-phase supply target of 350,000 b/d, though timelines for reaching full 650,000 b/d capacity remain unclear.
At the end of September, Dangote dismissed several workers, sparking a two-day strike by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN). While the dispute drew government intervention, Argus noted no direct evidence that it slowed crude deliveries.
Quality Consistency
Despite volume fluctuations, crude quality has remained steady. September receipts averaged 38° API gravity and 0.2% sulphur content, compared with 37.6° API and 0.2% sulphur in August. Across the first three quarters of 2025, the refinery averaged 36.8° API and 0.2% sulphur, close to the 36.2° API and 0.2% sulphur recorded in March–December 2024.