Nigeria’s domestic petrol supply met approximately 72 per cent of national demand in March 2026, as increased local refining output, largely linked to operations at the Dangote Refinery, continued to reshape the country’s downstream fuel market.
Data released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority shows that the average daily domestic supply of Premium Motor Spirit, PMS, stood at 34.2 million litres during the month, compared to an estimated daily consumption of 47.3 million litres.
The figures underscore a growing reliance on local refining capacity, even as a supply gap persists.
Supply Gap Persists Despite Rising Domestic Output
A breakdown of the regulator’s performance data indicates that total PMS production reached 48.2 million litres per day in March. However, only 34.2 million litres per day were distributed into the domestic market, suggesting that not all refined volumes were immediately available for local consumption.
With Nigeria’s state-owned refineries inactive during the period and modular refinery output contributing less than 1 million litres per day, the bulk of petrol supply within the country is understood to have been driven by Dangote-linked production.
This marks a structural shift in Nigeria’s fuel supply chain, where a single large-scale refinery now accounts for the majority of domestically available petrol.
Despite the strong contribution from local refining, a supply shortfall of about 13.1 million litres per day remained, leaving the market dependent on imports to fully meet demand.
The NMDPRA data also highlights a relatively tight supply buffer, with national PMS sufficiency estimated at 21 days in March. This figure includes stock held at the Dangote facility, reinforcing its expanding role not only in daily supply but also in supporting the country’s strategic fuel reserves.
Meanwhile, petrol prices remained elevated across major cities, reflecting prevailing market conditions. Average pump prices were reported at ₦1,140.50 per litre in Lagos, ₦1,202 per litre in Abuja, and ₦1,270 per litre in Enugu.
Pricing dynamics during the period were influenced by global and macroeconomic factors, including Brent crude prices at $103.89 per barrel, gasoline costs at $1,046.52 per metric tonne, and an exchange rate of ₦1,377.61 to the dollar.
Overall, the March data points to an ongoing transition in Nigeria’s downstream sector. While Dangote's linked supply is significantly reducing the country’s reliance on imports, the persistence of a supply gap and limited reserve cover suggests that the market remains sensitive to both domestic production stability and external supply conditions.