Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market is witnessing a sharp shift in supply dynamics as marketers increasingly turn to private depots, following Dangote Refinery’s recent petrol price adjustment.
Industry data and market checks by Petroleumprice.ng reveal that truck loading at the Lekki-based refinery has declined by nearly 50 percent, dropping from about 1,000 trucks daily to below 500 trucks per day. The slowdown follows the refinery’s ₦100 increase in its Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) ex-depot price after an earlier ₦129 reduction in December.
From Surge to Slowdown
On December 11, Dangote Refinery slashed its PMS price from ₦828 to ₦699 per litre — a ₦129 reduction that triggered a surge in patronage. Consequently, daily truck loading climbed to approximately 1,000 trucks, while coastal loading was placed on hold as the refinery focused heavily on road distribution.
However, shortly after raising its ex-depot price by ₦100 and instructing customers who purchased at ₦699 to add the price difference, market sentiment shifted. Marketers who had stocked up at the lower rate described the move as discouraging.
Since the increase, private depots across Nigeria have priced PMS slightly below Dangote’s revised rate. As a result, marketers and filling station owners now prefer sourcing from depots closer to their operational bases.
A marketer who spoke to Petroleumprice.ng described the situation bluntly:
“Dangote refinery is now deserted. It is dry. People now prefer to deal with private depots because of the distance and the price difference.”
Private Depots Attract Marketers Across Zones
Market data obtained on February 3, 2026, show that private depots are offering competitive PMS prices across key supply hubs.
Lagos (PMS – Selected Below ₦800):
- Aiteo — ₦797
- Wosbab — ₦798
- Shellplux — ₦798
Warri (Lowest PMS):
- Danmarna — ₦817
- Optima — ₦817
- Nepal — ₦817
- Salbas — ₦817
Port Harcourt (Lowest PMS):
- Masters — ₦830
Calabar (Lowest PMS):
- Alkanes — ₦830
These competitive depot prices, particularly in Lagos, where some marketers can still source below ₦800 per litre, have reduced the incentive to travel long distances to Dangote Refinery.
Consequently, depots in Lagos, Warri, Port Harcourt, and Calabar are experiencing renewed activity as supply becomes increasingly decentralized.
Diesel Market Remains Decentralised
Beyond PMS, the Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) market reflects a similar trend. Earlier this year, several private depots sold diesel below Dangote’s ex-depot price, with some transactions occurring around ₦908–₦909 per litre.
Currently, AGO prices across private depots are broadly aligned with Dangote’s levels. Nevertheless, supply flows are no longer concentrated at a single source.
Instead, the market has become decentralized, with private depots regaining prominence in regional distribution. As marketers prioritize pricing flexibility and shorter haulage distances, product lifting is spreading across multiple supply hubs rather than being centralized at the Lekki refinery.
For now, market activity suggests that pricing strategy rather than capacity will determine where Nigeria’s bulk petroleum trade gravitates in the coming months.