Fresh indications from Nigeria’s downstream oil market suggest that fuel prices could decline in the coming days, following a sharp drop in global crude oil prices and growing expectations of a downward review by Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals.
Market checks and industry sources indicate that the refinery’s pricing model is closely tied to international crude benchmarks, making recent developments in the global oil market a key driver of domestic price direction.
Crude prices fell significantly earlier in the day, with WTI crude and Brent crude both declining by about 10 percent. The drop followed easing geopolitical tensions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a reversal in the risk premium that had pushed prices higher in recent weeks.
A senior source familiar with operations at the Dangote refinery said the facility’s gantry pricing has consistently tracked movements in crude oil.
“Across recent pricing adjustments, crude oil has been the primary driver,” the source said, noting that the latest decline in global prices is expected to reflect in domestic fuel pricing.
According to the source, a reduction of up to ₦100 per litre, or slightly less, is likely if current crude price levels are sustained.
This expectation is already influencing market behaviour, particularly among private depot owners and marketers, many of whom are adjusting positions in anticipation of a possible price cut.
Updated depot data from Lagos on March 23 shows private operators pricing below Dangote’s rate across both petrol and diesel:
PMS (Petrol):
- Aiteo == ₦1,270
- Nipco == ₦1,270
- 11Plc == ₦1,270
AGO (Diesel):
- T.Time== ₦1,698
- Ibeto == ₦1,698
- African Terminal == ₦1,700
- Gulf Treasure == ₦1,700
- Duport == ₦1,700
Market sources indicate that private depots are selling below Dangote Refinery's prices for both PMS and AGO, reflecting growing competition and fuelling expectations of a downward review. Currently, Dangote's gantry prices stand at ₦1,275 per litre for PMS and ₦1,750 per litre for AGO.
Traders say the fear of a sudden price cut is shaping decisions, particularly in Lagos, where competition among marketers remains intense.
“The expectation is that prices will come down. Nobody wants to be caught with expensive stock,” a depot marketer said.
Industry analysts note that while factors such as exchange rates, logistics, and supply conditions remain relevant, crude oil continues to be the dominant driver in the current pricing cycle.
With global oil markets easing and tensions softening, the likelihood of a downward adjustment in fuel prices appears increasingly strong, potentially offering short term relief to consumers.