The Dangote Petroleum Refinery may review its petrol and diesel prices upward if current market conditions remain elevated, industry sources have told Petroleumprice.ng, as depot prices have stayed above the refinery’s latest gantry rates for the third consecutive day.
The sources said the potential adjustment would depend largely on whether the elevated market is sustained, with uncertainty surrounding international crude prices and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz continuing to influence pricing expectations across the downstream sector.
The refinery’s latest gantry prices stand at ₦1,165 per litre for petrol and ₦1,570 per litre for diesel.
However, Dangote-linked marketers are currently quoting ₦1,168 per litre for petrol and ₦1,630 per litre for diesel.
This means the linked marketers are selling petrol ₦3 per litre above the refinery’s gantry price, while their diesel price is ₦60 higher.
The spread is wider across some independent depot marketers.
In Lagos, Pinnacle is selling petrol at ₦1,180 per litre, ₦15 above Dangote’s gantry rate, while its diesel price of ₦1,625is ₦55 higher.
Sahara’s latest AGO price of ₦1,680 is ₦110 above Dangote’s diesel gantry price, while NIPCO’s ₦1,650 is ₦80 higher.
The disparity is also evident in other markets. In Port Harcourt, Sigmund, Bulk Strategic and Liquid Bulk are selling petrol at ₦1,205 per litre, ₦40 above Dangote’s gantry price.
Calabar prices are also above the refinery benchmark, with Northwest at ₦1,195, Sobaz at ₦1,199, and Hong Petroleum, Fynefield and Soroman at ₦1,198 per litre. These prices are between ₦30 and ₦34 above Dangote’s petrol gantry rate.
Diesel is trading considerably higher in Warri, where A.Y.M Shafa is quoting ₦1,800 per litre, ₦230 above Dangote’s ₦1,570 gantry price.
The sources said the divergence between the refinery’s pricing and prevailing depot rates has persisted for about three days, with Dangote-linked marketers and independent depot operators selling at different levels while the refinery’s gantry prices have remained unchanged.
According to the sources, the key consideration is whether the current market premium persists rather than a single-day movement in depot prices.
If the higher market levels are sustained, the refinery could be compelled to reassess its pricing to reflect the changing market environment, particularly as international crude prices remain sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz.
The uncertainty over when the strategic waterway will fully reopen has continued to inject volatility into the oil market. Any prolonged disruption could keep crude prices elevated, increasing pressure on the cost of replacing petroleum products.
The sources stressed that a review would therefore be dependent on the persistence of the current market conditions, rather than an immediate response to temporary price movements.
Meanwhile, the current data shows a relatively narrow gap in petrol but a considerably wider spread in diesel between Dangote’s gantry prices and the prices at which some marketers are currently offering products.
With PMS at ₦1,165 per litre and AGO at ₦1,570 per litre at the refinery’s gantry, the market is currently trading above those levels in several locations, providing the basis for close monitoring of the refinery’s next pricing decision.