Nigeria’s downstream petrol market has repriced sharply, with private depot owners lifting ex-depot PMS prices to ₦800 per litre, following confirmation that the Dangote Refinery has shut its petrol-producing unit for a planned upgrade. The development has shifted market sentiment from short-lived relief to cautious repositioning, as traders factor in supply risk ahead of 2026.
Depot prices reverse as market reacts to refinery update
Petroleumprice.ng data shows that PMS prices softened briefly between December 23 and 24, 2025, before the trend reversed. In Lagos, Nipco, Rainoil and Aiteo sold PMS at ₦725 per litre, while Port Harcourt depots such as Matrix and Sigmund traded between ₦754 and ₦756. Warri prices hovered around ₦760, and Calabar averaged ₦772–₦773 per litre.
However, by December 29, Port Harcourt and Calabar depots had repriced PMS to ₦800 per litre, with Warri aligning by December 31. Lagos followed cautiously, as Rain oil adjusted to ₦800 per litre. Market operators say the repricing reflects a shift from spot-driven pricing to forward-looking risk valuation.
Dangote petrol unit shutdown confirms supply constraints fears
The pricing adjustment follows a report confirming that the Dangote Refinery has commenced a planned turnaround maintenance on its petrol-producing unit. According to an Energy in Africa report, the refinery’s residue fluid catalytic cracker (RFCC) has been taken offline, while the crude distillation unit (CDU) will also be suspended for a few days in January.
Speaking to Platts, Dangote Industries Vice President, Devakumar Edwin, said the shutdown was strategic rather than disruptive.
“In most departments, our production levels have gone beyond 100%. We just need to remove constraints to raise overall output,” Edwin said.
The report noted that the maintenance is designed to lift the refinery’s CDU capacity from 650,000 barrels per day to 700,000 bpd, reinforcing its position as the world’s largest single-train refinery.
Anticipatory pricing drives ₦800/L benchmark
Industry analysts say depot owners are responding not to an immediate shortage but to anticipated supply constraints during the maintenance window. While Dangote can still produce limited petrol volumes from its reformer and continue diesel and jet fuel supply through secondary units, traders are already adjusting positions.
Energy in Africa observed that intermittent RFCC disruptions have previously capped petrol output, forcing regulators to temporarily relax import tariffs to prevent supply gaps. Against this backdrop, depot owners are pricing in replacement cargo risk, higher logistics costs and tighter regional availability.
As one downstream trader put it, “The market is not panicking; it is preparing.”
With most private depots now selling PMS at ₦800 per litre, analysts warn that retail pump prices may remain under pressure until refinery operations stabilise. If the upgrade delivers as planned and output ramps up in early 2026, pricing pressure could ease. Until then, depot prices are likely to stay firm, anchored by expectations rather than scarcity.