The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) has said Nigeria’s petrol market could have faced an extreme price escalation of between ₦5,000 and ₦6,000 per litre without the stabilising role of the Dangote Refinery, amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The association’s spokesperson, Chinedu Ukadike, made the remarks in an interview with DAILY POST, where he assessed the impact of global oil market disruptions on domestic fuel pricing.
He explained that the ongoing tensions involving Iran, the United States, and Israel have continued to inject volatility into global crude oil supply chains, with the potential to trigger sharp price increases in import-dependent economies.
According to him, Nigeria’s growing domestic refining capacity has significantly reduced exposure to such external shocks, providing a buffer against sudden price spikes and supply disruptions.
Ukadike noted that the increased contribution of the Dangote Refinery to domestic fuel supply has helped stabilise availability and moderate pricing pressures in the downstream market.
“Nigeria is benefiting from this crisis through higher crude oil revenue. I also want to thank Dangote Refinery for continuing to supply petroleum products to the domestic market,” he said.
He added that in the absence of local refining, Nigeria would have remained highly vulnerable to import-driven cost escalation, particularly from exchange rate volatility, freight charges, and global supply constraints.
“Nigeria is no longer dependent on petrol product imports. I want to tell you today that petroleum products would have been around ₦5,000 or ₦6,000 per litre without Dangote Refinery,” Ukadike stated.
The Dangote Refinery, with a reported capacity of about 700,000 barrels per day, continues to play an expanding role in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, gradually reducing dependence on imported refined products and reshaping domestic supply dynamics.
Recent market movements indicate a mild downward adjustment in petrol prices across parts of the country, reflecting improved supply conditions and changes in ex-depot pricing.
According to Petroleumprice.ng several filling stations have reduced pump prices following a cut in the Dangote Refinery gantry price to ₦1,250 per litre from ₦1,275 per litre.
The report showed that in areas such as Igando in Lagos, petrol now sells between ₦1,272 and ₦1,295 per litre, depending on the station, while similar adjustments have been observed in other locations including Abeokuta. The variations, it noted, reflect differences in logistics costs, inventory levels, and market competition among marketers.
Industry stakeholders say the latest pricing trend underscores the increasing influence of domestic refining on Nigeria’s downstream market, as changes at the depot level are now more quickly reflected at retail outlets.
However, analysts continue to emphasise the need for broader market stability measures to ensure that improvements in supply translate into sustained affordability for consumers, especially in a deregulated environment.
For now, IPMAN maintains that the Dangote Refinery has provided a critical buffer against global oil shocks, helping Nigeria avoid what could have been a severe fuel price escalation at a time of heightened international uncertainty.
As global energy markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, attention continues to focus on how Nigeria can consolidate its gains in domestic refining while strengthening long-term price stability and supply security.