Nigeria’s depot petrol market is facing fresh upward pressure, with prices in different supply hubs expected to move towards ₦1,300 per litre after Dangote Petroleum Refinery increased its Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) gantry price for the third time in nine days.
The refinery raised its PMS gantry price from ₦1,165 to ₦1,185 per litre on August 20, before increasing it again to ₦1,200 on August 25. On August 29, Dangote announced another ₦65 increase, taking the gantry price to ₦1,265 per litre. The three adjustments have lifted the refinery’s PMS price by a cumulative ₦100 per litre within nine days.
The latest increase is yet to be fully reflected in depot prices monitored by Petroleumprice.ng at the close of trading on Friday, August 28. In Lagos, Pinnacle, Bono, Integrated and African Terminal closed at ₦1,201 per litre, while Aiteo stood at ₦1,200.
This leaves the new Dangote gantry price just ₦64–₦65 above the prevailing prices at most Lagos depots. With marketers now having to price fresh supplies against a ₦1,265 refinery benchmark, the gap could narrow rapidly as depots review their replacement costs.
Depots across the major supply hubs are therefore most likely to push PMS prices towards ₦1,300 per litre today. The extent of the adjustment, however, will depend on individual depot supply costs, available inventories and prevailing margins.
The pressure is being reinforced by the renewed rise in international crude prices. Brent crude climbed back above $90 per barrel on Monday, rising more than 2% after fresh US-Iran military strikes heightened concerns over oil supplies and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The combination of a higher refinery benchmark and firmer international crude prices is giving marketers a stronger basis to reassess replacement costs. For the Nigerian downstream market, the immediate question is no longer whether depot prices will respond to the ₦1,265 Dangote gantry price, but how quickly the adjustment will take the market towards the ₦1,300 per litre mark.