Global crude prices slumped to their lowest in a week on Monday, with Brent settling at $68.02 per barrel and WTI at $65.58. The downturn came as markets digested OPEC+’s decision to implement a full reversal of its 2.2 million b/d voluntary cuts starting in September. The cartel will raise output by 547,000 b/d next month, citing strong summer demand and historically low inventories as justification.
Meanwhile, depot-level prices for petrol and diesel across Nigeria trended downward, tracking weaker global benchmarks. According to figures from Petroleumprice.ng, the first week of August witnessed notable reductions across major storage hubs in Lagos, Warri, and Port Harcourt.
Depot Price Update – Downtrend Continues
Lagos:
Dangote’s AGO price slid to ₦1,015 from ₦1,043. Aiteo pegged PMS at ₦862 and AGO at ₦1,017, both down from Friday’s ₦865 and ₦1,035 respectively.
Warri:
Matrix reduced PMS to ₦865 and AGO to ₦1,090, compared to ₦890 and ₦1,150 at the end of last week.
Port Harcourt:
PMS remained at ₦890 at depots including Ever, Sigmund, and Masters. AGO at Masters fell to ₦1,088, from ₦1,110 previously.
These domestic adjustments coincide with Nigeria’s improving crude output. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) confirmed July production surpassed 1.8 million b/d—the highest since April 2020—bolstered by a targeted crackdown on oil theft and pipeline sabotage.
Global Oil Shifts: U.S. Firms Surge, Europe and Aramco Lag
In global developments, U.S. oil majors ExxonMobil and Chevron surged ahead of competitors in Q2 2025, hitting record production of 4.63 million boe/d and 3.4 million boe/d, respectively. In stark contrast, Shell’s output dropped 4.2% year-on-year to 2.65 million boe/d, while BP slipped 3.3% to 2.3 million boe/d. TotalEnergies was the only major European firm to record production growth.
The divergence also reflects boardroom dynamics. ExxonMobil successfully resisted pressure from activist fund Elliott Investment Management. Ironically, the same group is now targeting BP, demanding it sell $20 billion in assets and reduce net debt from $26 billion to $14–18 billion by 2027.
Saudi Aramco is facing its own headwinds. The state-owned giant reported a 22% drop in Q2 profit to $22.7 billion, with average realized crude prices falling to $66.7/bbl from $76.3 in Q1. Its share price has tumbled 14% this year, as investors weigh reduced dividends and the fiscal burden of Saudi Arabia’s $92.3/bbl breakeven target.
Key Market Developments: From Brazil to Libya and India
BP also announced a supergiant discovery in Brazil’s Santos Basin—its largest oil find in 25 years. Chevron, meanwhile, is fast-tracking its return to Venezuela, expecting crude exports to resume as early as August after securing a U.S. Treasury waiver.
India’s Reliance Industries has launched a joint venture with BP and ONGC to explore the GS-2022/2 offshore block, while ExxonMobil inked a deal with Libya’s NOC for seismic studies in four offshore blocks—marking its first re-entry since 2013.
On a broader geopolitical front, India rebuffed threats from the Trump-led U.S., asserting its sovereign trade rights. This pushback helped ease concerns over a sudden halt in Russian oil imports by August 8, contributing to further bearish sentiment in the oil market.
Global Supply Chain Watch
Additional developments include:
- Panama’s ban on registering tankers older than 15 years, targeting the shadow fleet crisis.
- Ukraine’s drone strikes on two major Russian refineries, halting operations at Novokuibyshevsk.
- Azerbaijan’s crude exports disrupted due to contamination in the BTC pipeline.
- Trinidad finalizing a massive offshore licensing deal with Exxon.
- Asian coal imports surged in July amid extreme heat, hitting 70.7 million tonnes.
- Japan’s electricity spot prices hit a record ¥16.9/kWh amid heatwave-induced power shortages.
- Mexico’s new president pledged to cut Pemex’s debt from $99 billion to $77 billion by 2030.
- China’s refined copper output is expected to grow 10% in 2025, widening its surplus further.