Petroleum marketers in Nigeria are bracing for a potential drop in petrol and diesel depot prices. The shift comes as international crude benchmarks fell sharply over the weekend, while local demand continues to lag behind available supply.
As of 11AM WAT Monday, Brent Crude traded at $68.57 per barrel, and WTI Crude stood at $66.16—down from Thursday highs of $73 and $70, respectively. Analysts link the decline to weakening global demand signals and rising oil inventories across Asia and North America.
In Nigeria, the drop could lead to a modest correction in depot prices by late Monday or early Tuesday. Last week’s speculative surge had pushed petrol prices near ₦900/litre at coastal depots. Diesel (AGO) prices, which followed similar trends, may also retreat as cost pressures ease.
Oversupply and Weak Demand Push Prices Lower
Depot operators say falling crude prices aren’t the only pressure point. A growing gap between product availability and actual demand is forcing them to rethink pricing strategies for both PMS and AGO.
“Depot tanks are relatively full, but sales have slowed due to prices,” a downstream logistics executive told Petroleumprice.ng. “There’s reduced interstate movement, and consumers are cutting back. If this continues, we’ll need to lower prices to boost offtake.”
Marketers noted that this oversupply is more visible in the Lagos terminal. Throughput volumes have decreased over the last three days, despite steady distribution margins.
Thursday’s Price Spike Now Viewed as Overreaction
On Thursday, July 31, ex-depot petrol prices jumped nationwide. The rally was driven by a brief spike in global crude prices and uncertainty around Dangote Refinery’s supply levels.
In Port Harcourt, Masters Energy and Ever Oil posted prices as high as ₦897 and ₦900/litre, while Nipco and Aiteo reached ₦870/litre in Lagos. Those figures, however, may no longer hold.
Diesel (AGO) prices also spiked. Depots like Nipco and Chipet raised rates from ₦1010 to ₦1130/litre, largely due to speculation and FX-linked import risks. But with crude prices reversing and demand softening, many marketers are now treading cautiously.
Forecast: PMS and AGO Prices May Slide ₦20–₦35/Litre
Several depot operators plan to review their pricing in the next few hours. If crude benchmarks stay below $70 and demand remains sluggish, a drop in depot rates is likely.
Forecast models from independent marketers suggest a ₦20 to ₦35/litre cut in both petrol and diesel this week.
“The previous hike reflected market realities at the time,” said a source involved in Warri depot deals. “But the current fundamentals no longer justify those levels. We expect a price correction unless supply disruptions occur again.”
Possible Pump Price Relief Ahead
Should depot prices fall as expected, pump prices might ease later in the week. In recent days, petrol has been sold above ₦915/litre and diesel above ₦ 1,150 per litre in cities such as Abuja, Lagos, and Port Harcourt, primarily due to depot pass-through costs.
While exchange rate swings and logistics expenses still affect the supply chain, the sharp decline in global crude offers a temporary buffer. If marketers pass on the savings, both petrol and diesel consumers could see mild relief at the pump.