Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market braces for another round of price hikes this week as Brent crude futures continue climbing, squeezing depot operators’ margins. As of today, Brent crude trades at $67.81 per barrel, marking a 0.12% gain within 12 minutes of market activity. This momentum extends last Friday’s rally when crude jumped from $66 to $68 per barrel a sharp 2% rise triggered by the collapse of negotiations between Iran and Western allies, which raised fears of tighter global supplies.
Global market snapshot
Crude oil benchmarks opened the week mixed, according to Oilprice.com:
- Brent Crude: $67.71 (-0.03%)
- WTI Crude: $63.64 (-0.03%)
- Murban Crude: $70.60 (-0.18%)
- Natural Gas: $2.653 (-1.67%)
However, prices gained traction later in the session. At the time of writing, Brent crude trades at $67.85, while WTI sits at $63.79 per barrel, supported by both monetary policy expectations and geopolitical risks.
Oil analyst Irina Slav (Oilprice.com) reports that optimism surged after U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled readiness for another rate cut in September. Markets immediately priced in the move, raising the probability of a cut from 72% to 85%. Simultaneously, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s Druzhba pipeline and the Ust-Luga terminal reinforced supply disruption fears, driving a fresh risk premium into global oil markets.
Regional depot movements
The surge in global crude prices is already translating into higher PMS costs across Nigerian depots. Between Thursday and Friday last week, Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) prices moved sharply upward, and this trend has persisted into Monday morning.
- Port Harcourt depots: ₦837 → ₦845–₦850 per litre
- Lagos depots: ₦820 → ₦830 per litre
- Calabar depots: ₦832 → ₦847–₦850 per litre
- Warri depots: ₦835–₦837 → ₦843–₦845 per litre
These consistent upward adjustments highlight how global crude movements flow directly into local pricing structures.
Market drivers and outlook
Geopolitical tension, combined with macroeconomic shifts, fuels the current rally. Iran’s collapsed negotiations added to Middle Eastern uncertainty, while Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure deepened global supply worries. Moreover, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts injected optimism into commodity markets, providing additional bullish momentum.
As crude now hovers between $67 and $68 per barrel, Nigerian depot operators continue adjusting prices almost in real time. Without supply relief or domestic refining stability, analysts warn that pump prices could follow, tightening pressure on households and businesses already weighed down by high inflation.
The week ahead
Looking forward, traders widely agree that depot prices remain poised for another weekly increase. If Brent sustains levels above $68 per barrel, downstream margins in Nigeria will likely come under further strain, keeping depot quotes elevated across Lagos, Port Harcourt, Warri, and Calabar hubs.