Between 10th and 12th September 2025, Nigeria’s downstream depots in Lagos, Warri, and Port Harcourt displayed mixed pricing signals for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and Automotive Gas Oil (AGO). While petrol (PMS) traded within a competitive corridor, diesel (AGO) entrenched its premium above ₦1,000/litre in Warri and Port Harcourt, highlighting the widening structural cost gap between the two products.
Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) – Price Trends
Lagos Depot Prices (PMS)
| Depot | 10 Sept (₦/L) | 12 Sept (₦/L) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dangote | 834 | 833 | -1 |
| Sahara | 845 | 845 | 0 |
| Rainoil | 848 | 850 | -2 |
| MENJ | 845 | 838 | -7 |
| AITEO | 845 | 836 | -9 |
Analysis: Lagos depots sustained relative stability. Dangote maintained its role as the anchor supplier, pricing PMS at ₦833/litre. Sahara remained flat at ₦845, while Rainoil trimmed slightly. These movements demonstrate the refinery-linked supply advantage enjoyed by Dangote, compared with trader-driven volatility at independent depots.
Warri Depot Prices (PMS)
| Depot | 10 Sept (₦/L) | 12 Sept (₦/L) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matrix | 865 | 866 | +1 |
| Rainoil | 880 | 870 | -10 |
| Parker | 862 | 863 | +1 |
Analysis: Warri displayed a mild correction. Rainoil’s sharp ₦10 drop signals possible cost absorption strategies to protect market share, while Matrix and Parker nudged upward. These micro-shifts show how depots in Warri adjust aggressively to freight premiums and inter-regional trucking demand, particularly into the North-Central corridor.
Port Harcourt Depot Prices (PMS)
| Depot | 10 Sept (₦/L) | 12 Sept (₦/L) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Masters | 870 | 864 | -6 |
| Sigmund | 870 | 866 | -4 |
Analysis: Port Harcourt corrected downward, with Masters and Sigmund shaving off ₦4–₦6/litre. This signals competitive repricing in the South-South hub, where proximity to modular refineries and strong trucking capacity helps keep PMS costs relatively lean.
Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) – Price Trends
Lagos Depot Prices (AGO)
| Depot | 10 Sept (₦/L) | 12 Sept (₦/L) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dangote | 965 | 965 | 0 |
| Sahara | 1050 | 1050 | 0 |
| Rainoil | 1000 | 1000 | 0 |
| NIPCO | 979 | 980 | +1 |
Analysis: Diesel in Lagos consolidated at elevated levels. Dangote held firm at ₦965/litre, offering the most competitive benchmark. However, Sahara and Rainoil locked prices at ₦1,050 and ₦1,000 respectively, underlining the persistent premium attached to diesel imports and storage costs. NIPCO’s marginal increase illustrates incremental pass-through of forex and demurrage expenses.
Warri Depot Prices (AGO)
| Depot | 10 Sept (₦/L) | 12 Sept (₦/L) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matrix | 1050 | 1010 | -40 |
| Rainoil | 1012 | 1000 | -12 |
Analysis: Warri depots moved decisively lower, with Matrix cutting by ₦40/litre and Rainoil easing by ₦12. This retracement suggests improved inflows or strategic undercutting to sustain throughput. Despite the softening, AGO in Warri remains structurally above ₦1,000, reinforcing diesel’s position as an industrial-cost driver.
Port Harcourt Depot Prices (AGO)
| Depot | 10 Sept (₦/L) | 12 Sept (₦/L) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Masters | 1023 | 1025 | +2 |
| Bulk Strategic | 1023 | 1025 | +2 |
Analysis: Port Harcourt diesel climbed marginally higher, reaching ₦1,025/litre. The persistence of AGO above this mark underscores the hub’s vulnerability to supply-chain bottlenecks and strong demand from Eastern industrial users. The upward tick, though small, signals entrenched cost-push dynamics.
Market Insight & Outlook
The review period confirms a dual-track market:
- PMS stayed relatively competitive, supported by Dangote’s stabilising role in Lagos and repricing in Port Harcourt.
- AGO entrenched its premium, with Warri softening slightly but Port Harcourt reinforcing the ₦1,025/litre ceiling.
With Brent crude closing at $67.55 and Bonny Light at $80.92, depot operators will likely continue to calibrate prices upward. Consequently, marketers should anticipate PMS holding in the ₦830–₦870 band across major depots, while AGO will remain volatile but firmly above ₦1,000/litre due to industrial pull and forex exposure.
Outlook: The short-term trajectory points towards further divergence: petrol will trade within a competitive corridor, but diesel’s elevated floor will keep pressure on manufacturers, logistics operators, and small businesses dependent on generators.