Nigeria's downstream petroleum market witnessed one of its sharpest weekly price rallies in recent months as depot prices surged across Lagos, Warri, Port Harcourt and Calabar following Dangote Refinery's transition to dollar-denominated product sales and mounting uncertainty over the future of the Federal Government's naira-for-crude arrangement.
At the beginning of the week on Monday, Brent crude traded around the low-$70 per barrel range as markets assessed the impact of renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. By Friday, international oil prices remained elevated around $87 per barrel with traders continuing to monitor developments surrounding Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and global supply security.
The most significant driver of the domestic market, however, came from within Nigeria. Dangote Refinery officially commenced dollar sales for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) and Aviation Turbine Kerososene (ATK), forcing marketers to source foreign exchange for product purchases. The development immediately tightened replacement costs across the downstream market, prompting widespread upward price adjustments at private depots nationwide.
Although Petroleumprice.ng exclusively reported on Friday that the Federal Government, through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), has opened discussions with Dangote Refinery over a possible return to naira-denominated transactions, the talks had yet to produce any immediate relief for marketers during the review period. Consequently, ex-depot petrol prices climbed sharply across virtually every major supply corridor.
LAGOS DEPOTS
PMS (Monday – Friday Movement)
Pinnacle: ₦1,085 → ₦1,190 (+₦105)
African Terminal: ₦1,090 → ₦1,189 (+₦99)
Sahara: ₦1,090 → ₦1,189 (+₦99)
Integrated: ₦1,090 → ₦1,189 (+₦99)
Lister: ₦1,090 → ₦1,200 (+₦110)
Lagos recorded widespread increases in petrol prices as marketers adjusted to the refinery's dollar pricing regime. While Dangote Refinery maintained a lower official gantry price, independent depots significantly raised offers to reflect higher replacement costs and foreign exchange exposure. By the end of the week, most Lagos depots were selling PMS between ₦1,189 and ₦1,200 per litre.
AGO (Monday – Friday Movement)
Ibeto: ₦1,445 → ₦1,500 (+₦55)
Duport: ₦1,450 → ₦1,500 (+₦50)
Sahara: ₦1,450 → ₦1,500 (+₦50)
Menj: ₦1,450 → ₦1,495 (+₦45)
Wosbab: ₦1,450 → ₦1,500 (+₦50)
Diesel prices also strengthened across Lagos, reflecting higher replacement costs following the refinery's dollar sales policy. Although Dangote Refinery retained its AGO price at $1.087 per litre, marketers revised depot prices upward as they factored in foreign exchange procurement costs.
WARRI DEPOTS
PMS (Monday – Friday Movement)
Rain Oil: ₦1,130 → ₦1,240 (+₦110)
Matrix: ₦1,120 → ₦1,220 (+₦100)
Parker: ₦1,125 → ₦1,220 (+₦95)
Optima: ₦1,117 → ₦1,235 (+₦118)
A.Y.M Shafa: ₦1,125 → ₦1,230 (+₦105)
Warri recorded one of the week's strongest petrol price increases, with virtually every monitored depot raising prices by close to or above ₦100 per litre. The market responded rapidly to the higher replacement cost environment, with Rain Oil and Optima posting some of the largest increases.
AGO (Monday – Friday Movement)
Rain Oil: ₦1,485 → ₦1,550 (+₦65)
Nipco: ₦1,485 → ₦1,550 (+₦65)
Prudent: ₦1,540 → ₦1,540 (No change)
Diesel prices in Warri remained elevated throughout the week. Rain Oil and Nipco adjusted prices higher by ₦65 per litre, while Prudent maintained its opening price, making it the only monitored depot in Warri to avoid an increase during the review period.
PORT HARCOURT DEPOTS
PMS (Monday – Friday Movement)
Bulk Strategic: ₦1,136 → ₦1,225 (+₦89)
Masters: ₦1,137 → ₦1,230 (+₦93)
Matrix: ₦1,137 → ₦1,225 (+₦88)
Liquid Bulk: ₦1,140 → ₦1,225 (+₦85)
Port Harcourt witnessed broad-based increases in petrol prices, with every monitored depot recording gains of more than ₦85 per litre. The upward movement reflected the growing cost of inland product replacement after the shift to dollar-denominated transactions.
AGO (Monday – Friday Movement)
Matrix: ₦1,500 → ₦1,590 (+₦90)
Matrix posted one of the week's largest diesel increases nationwide, highlighting the strong upward pressure on AGO replacement costs in the South-South market.
CALABAR DEPOTS
PMS (Monday – Friday Movement)
Mainland: ₦1,155 → ₦1,220 (+₦65)
Jenny: ₦1,155 → ₦1,225 (+₦70)
Calabar also joined the nationwide upward trend, with both monitored depots increasing PMS prices by between ₦65 and ₦70 per litre as replacement costs filtered through the supply chain.
Market Outlook
The downstream market enters the new week with considerable attention focused on ongoing discussions between the Federal Government and Dangote Refinery over a possible return to naira-denominated product sales. Industry stakeholders believe a successful resolution could ease foreign exchange pressure on marketers and moderate depot prices.
Until a new pricing framework is agreed, however, depot owners are expected to continue pricing products based on dollar replacement costs. Consequently, petrol and diesel prices are likely to remain elevated in the near term despite stable domestic supply from Dangote Refinery. The outcome of the Federal Government's negotiations with the refinery is expected to determine the next direction of Nigeria's downstream petroleum market.