Fuel prices across major depots in Nigeria recorded slight declines between 3rd and 7th March 2025, reflecting ongoing market adjustments influenced by increased importation of petroleum products, improved competition, and a stronger naira. Data from Dangote Refinery and depots in Lagos, Port Harcourt, Delta, and Calabar indicate minor reductions across Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), and Aviation Turbine Kerosene (ATK).
The price drop suggests a stabilising fuel market as the Dangote Refinery boosts output, reducing dependency on imports. However, increased inflow of petroleum products, driven by private depot owners competing with Dangote Refinery, has further pressured prices downward. Additionally, a stronger exchange rate has limited importation, impacting pricing trends.
Key Market Drivers
- Increased Importation of Petroleum Products
According to reports from TANCA, a significant volume of petroleum products is still being imported into Nigeria. This increased inflow has intensified competition between private depot owners and Dangote Refinery, leading to reduced fuel prices. - Stronger Naira Against the Dollar
The recent strengthening of the naira against the U.S. dollar has also contributed to the decline in fuel prices. A stronger naira means importers face higher costs, limiting their ability to bring in additional products, which in turn affects market supply and pricing.
Dangote Refinery Price Trends (3rd – 7th March 2025)
The Dangote Refinery, now a dominant player in Nigeria’s petroleum sector, saw slight reductions in fuel prices over the past week.
- PMS (Petrol): ₦836 → ₦835
- AGO (Diesel): ₦1,031 → ₦1,030
- LPG (Cooking Gas): ₦825 → ₦822
- ATK (Aviation Fuel): ₦1,035 → ₦1,035 (unchanged)
While PMS, AGO, and LPG recorded minor drops, ATK remained stable, indicating steady aviation fuel demand.
Key Price Trends at Lagos Depots
Dockyard Axis (Aiteo & Nipco Depots)
- PMS:
- Aiteo: ₦837 → ₦832
- Nipco: ₦845 → ₦835
- AGO:
- Nipco: ₦1,035 → ₦1,030
- Aiteo: ₦1,022 → ₦1,015
- LPG:
- Nipco: ₦845 → ₦832
- Navgas: ₦850 → ₦900 (₦50 increase due to supply constraints or high demand)
Coconut Axis (MRS, Bono, Ibeto, Africa Terminal, Techno Gas, Duport Depots)
- PMS:
- MRS Tincan: ₦834 → ₦830
- Bono: ₦840 → ₦834
- AGO:
- Ibeto: ₦1,022 → ₦1,013
- Africa Terminal: ₦1,022 → ₦1,012
- LPG:
- Techno Gas: ₦845 → ₦835
- ATK:
- Duport: ₦1,065 → ₦1,060
- Africa Terminal: ₦1,065 → ₦1,060
Satellite Axis (Wosbab, Rainoil, First Royal, Menj, AA Rano, PPMC Depots)
- PMS:
- Wosbab: ₦870 → ₦834 (₦36 drop, possibly due to increased supply)
- Rainoil: ₦850 → ₦833
- AGO:
- First Royal: ₦1,019 → ₦1,014
- Menj: ₦1,019 → ₦1,012
- LPG:
- Rainoil: ₦842 → ₦835
- AA Rano: ₦845 → ₦845 (unchanged)
- PPMC: ₦845 → ₦830 (₦15 drop suggests reduced depot costs or increased supply)
Port Harcourt Depot Price Movements
- PMS:
- Liquid Bulk: ₦872 → ₦864
- Masters: ₦872 → ₦865
- EVA: ₦874 → ₦864
- AGO:
- Bulk Strategic: ₦1,063 → ₦1,054
- LPG:
- Stockgap: ₦890 → ₦870 (₦20 drop likely linked to improved supply)
Delta Depot Price Adjustments
- PMS:
- A.Y.M Shafa: ₦859 → ₦857
- Matrix Warri: ₦860 → ₦858
- Sharon: ₦860 → ₦858
- AGO:
- Prudent Oghara: ₦1,040 → ₦1,035
- Matrix Warri: ₦1,040 → ₦1,036
- Taurus: ₦1,040 → ₦1,034
- Optima: ₦1,040 → ₦1,034
- LPG:
- Prudent Oghara: ₦870 → ₦860
- Matrix Warri: ₦870 → ₦860
- ATK:
- Matrix Warri: ₦1,070 → ₦1,070 (unchanged)
Calabar Depot Price Trends
- PMS:
- Mainland: ₦885 → ₦880
- Fynefield: ₦897 → ₦881 (₦16 drop suggests changes in supply chain costs)
Market Outlook
The steady decline in fuel prices across Nigeria suggests a healthy market correction, driven by:
- Increased local refining capacity from Dangote Refinery, reducing dependence on imports.
- Greater competition between private depot owners and Dangote Refinery, pushing prices lower.
- A stronger naira, making imports more affordable thus increasing the volume of fuel being imported.
Looking Ahead:
- Fuel prices may stabilise further as Dangote Refinery ramps up production.
- LPG pricing will remain volatile depending on importation rates and domestic production levels.
- PMS and AGO prices may see slight fluctuations as refined product supply expands.
With growing local refining capacity and market competition, fuel prices are expected to remain on a downward trend, benefiting consumers and businesses across Nigeria.