Nigeria's downstream petroleum market experienced mixed pricing trends during the week as global crude oil prices remained highly volatile amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, while domestic supply dynamics continued to shape movements across petroleum depots.
At the start of the week on Monday, Brent crude traded at $72.36 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $69.15 per barrel. By the close of trading on Friday, Brent crude had climbed to $76.01 per barrel, while WTI settled at $71.41 per barrel, reflecting the market's reaction to escalating geopolitical risks despite late-week price corrections.
International oil prices fluctuated sharply throughout the week. At one point, Brent surged to almost $80 per barrel after renewed tensions between the United States and Iran heightened concerns over the security of the Strait of Hormuz. However, prices later retreated to around $75 per barrel, remaining above pre-crisis levels as traders continued to factor in supply disruption risks.
Domestically, the market remained largely supported by strong product availability following Dangote Petroleum Refinery's decision to open its gantry to all qualified marketers after suspending its consortium arrangement, alongside the rollout of its free petrol delivery scheme for bulk buyers. Nevertheless, depot prices, particularly in Port Harcourt and Warri, moved higher during the week as marketers adjusted replacement costs amid growing fears that threats issued by United States President Donald Trump against Iran and the possibility of renewed disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could tighten global fuel supply and push international prices higher.
LAGOS DEPOTS
PMS (Monday – Friday Movement)
African Terminal: ₦1,075 → ₦1,074 (-₦1)
Ascon: ₦1,075 → ₦1,074 (-₦1)
Nipco: ₦1,076 → ₦1,074 (-₦2)
Pinnacle: ₦1,075 → ₦1,075 (No change)
Lagos remained Nigeria's most competitive PMS market throughout the week. The refinery's open-access gantry policy and free delivery initiative intensified price competition, limiting movements despite rising international crude prices.
AGO (Monday – Friday Movement)
African Terminal: ₦1,430 → ₦1,420 (-₦10)
Nipco: ₦1,450 → ₦1,450 (No change)
Duport: ₦1,425 → ₦1,415 (-₦10)
Ibeto: ₦1,425 → ₦1,420 (-₦5)
Ibachem: ₦1,425 → ₦1,420 (-₦5)
T.Time: ₦1,425 → ₦1,420 (-₦5)
Gulf: ₦1,425 → ₦1,420 (-₦5)
Diesel prices in Lagos remained under downward pressure as healthy inventories and stronger competition continued to outweigh higher international replacement costs.
WARRI DEPOTS
PMS (Monday – Friday Movement)
Matrix: ₦1,085 → ₦1,125 (+₦40)
Parker: ₦1,088 → ₦1,123 (+₦35)
Rain Oil: ₦1,090 → ₦1,100 (+₦10)
A.Y.M Shafa: ₦1,085 → ₦1,125 (+₦40)
Prudent: ₦1,085 → ₦1,100 (+₦15)
Optima: ₦1,085 → ₦1,100 (+₦15)
AGO (Monday – Friday Movement)
A.Y.M Shafa: ₦1,450 → ₦1,520 (+₦70)
Prudent: ₦1,475 → ₦1,540 (+₦65)
Warri recorded broad-based increases in both petrol and diesel prices as marketers adjusted to higher replacement costs, although domestic supply remained stable.
PORT HARCOURT DEPOTS
PMS (Monday – Friday Movement)
Sigmund: ₦1,082 → ₦1,139 (+₦57)
Matrix: ₦1,087 → ₦1,150 (+₦63)
AGO (Monday – Friday Movement)
Sigmund: ₦1,463 → ₦1,548 (+₦85)
Matrix: ₦1,465 → ₦1,550 (+₦85)
Port Harcourt posted some of the week's strongest increases, particularly in diesel, as depots adjusted prices to reflect higher inland replacement values.
CALABAR DEPOTS
PMS (Monday – Friday Movement)
Fynefield: ₦1,090 → ₦1,155 (+₦65)
Calabar also ended the week higher, with Fynefield recording a notable increase as replacement costs strengthened across the South-South supply corridor.
Market Outlook
Looking ahead, the Nigerian downstream market is expected to remain closely tied to developments in the Middle East. Although domestic supply remains robust and Dangote Refinery's expanded distribution strategy continues to moderate local pricing pressure, any further escalation between the United States and Iran or disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could lift international crude prices and increase replacement costs for marketers. For now, the combination of improved local supply, intensified competition and Dangote's pricing strategy is expected to cushion the impact of higher global oil prices on the domestic market in the near term.