West Africa risks a major supply squeeze if Moscow enforces a diesel export ban, market participants told Argus. The region depends heavily on Russian gasoil and would be one of the hardest hit by such restrictions.
Russia may suspend diesel exports until year-end and extend gasoline limits, state agency Tass reported on Tuesday, citing government sources. Since EU and UK sanctions blocked Russian oil products in early 2023, West Africa has become a critical outlet for Moscow’s gasoil. Brazil and other major buyers also face exposure.
Regional Reliance on Russian Gasoil
According to Kpler vessel-tracking data, Russia currently provides about 20% of West Africa’s gasoil imports. That share peaked at 25% in 2023–24, when Moscow redirected supplies to new markets after sanctions. Deliveries this year have averaged 35,000 b/d, led by Senegal (10,000 b/d), the Ivory Coast (9,000 b/d), and Ghana (6,000 b/d).
A Ghanaian trader warned that a ban would disrupt the country’s supply, though excess stock from August has temporarily kept prices low. Meanwhile, domestic refining could ease the shock. Ghana’s privately owned Sentuo refinery, with a 40,000 b/d first phase, now holds full approval and expects more crude to boost output. The state-owned 45,000 b/d Tema refinery will restart next month, while Senegal plans to expand its 30,000 b/d Dakar refinery to 110,000 b/d by 2028.
Dangote and Gulf Producers Positioned to Step In
Despite West Africa’s reliance on Russian gasoil, regional import demand has dropped to a four-year low of 164,000 b/d in 2025. Nigeria’s 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery has reshaped the market by supplying an increasing share. Before 2024, West Africa barely imported Nigerian gasoil. Volumes reached 34,000 b/d last year and climbed to 53,000 b/d this year — almost entirely from Dangote.
A source close to the refinery confirmed it could “certainly” boost exports if Russia halts flows. Another Nigerian trader agreed the plant “could fill the gap.”
Additional volumes may come from the Middle East Gulf. One trader predicted “prices will skyrocket” under a Russian ban. The UAE has already doubled its deliveries year-on-year to 30,000 b/d, making it the region’s third-largest supplier after Russia and Spain.