Nigeria’s estimated diesel landing cost has risen to ₦1,917.82 per litre, according to the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) report for September 10, 2026.
The latest figure is ₦67.82 per litre higher than Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s ₦1,850/litre AGO price, highlighting a widening gap between the estimated replacement cost of imported diesel and the refinery’s current domestic price.
Lagos depot prices on September 14, however, show that some suppliers are still trading below the MEMAN's landing cost. Chipet, Pinnacle and Wosbab were at ₦1,855/litre, while Ibeto was selling at ₦1,835/litre.
MEMAN’s AGO import-parity calculation incorporates key market parameters, including the international crude benchmark, ICE Futures and the naira-dollar exchange rate, which stood at ₦1,334.66–₦1,334.67/$ in the September 10 report. The 30-day average AGO import parity was ₦1,729.57/litre.
The movement in replacement economics comes as the U.S.-Iran conflict escalates, with attacks and disruptions around critical oil and shipping corridors increasing pressure on international crude and petroleum-product supply chains.
The Houthi attacks around the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb have added another layer of disruption risk, while attacks on regional energy infrastructure and continued uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz are complicating the movement of crude and refined products.
Despite some importers and depot operators currently selling below the estimated landing cost, market traders are expecting upward review on domestic AGO prices from Dangote Refinery, particularly if the international supply disruptions persist and replacement costs remain elevated.
For the domestic market, the key pricing reference is now the gap between the ₦1,917.82/litre AGO import parity and Dangote Refinery’s ₦1,850/litre price, with the refinery currently ₦67.82/litre below the estimated import cost.