Nigeria’s diesel market is experiencing a significant price decline, driven by a surge in cargo arrivals across the country’s ports. Data compiled from the May 2025 tanker position reports reveal that at least 14 vessels carrying Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) arrived at Lagos, Warri, Port Harcourt, and Calabar between May 2 and May 25, 2025, with total import volumes of approximately 341,800 metric tonnes (MT).
This influx of AGO has resulted in a saturated market, pushing ex-depot prices consistently downward. As at the latest update from Petroleumprice.ng, over 20 depots, including major facilities in Lagos and Warri, are quoting AGO prices between ₦912 and ₦950 per litre, with no upward changes across the board in recent days.
Breakdown by Port Location:
- Lagos:
- 6 AGO tankers arrived.
- Total volume: 142,000 MT
- Notable arrivals include STI MERAUX (44,000 MT), ELLIE M II (27,000 MT), and MYCROFT with a mixed cargo (5,000 MT AGO).
- Port Harcourt:
- 4 AGO tankers landed.
- Total volume: 70,000 MT
- Key vessels include HOLMES (20,000 MT), VIRGO 1, and ASHABI.
- Warri:
- 3 AGO tankers delivered.
- Total volume: 58,400 MT
- BURAN, MYCROFT, and FATIMA ZARAH contributed significantly.
- Calabar:
- 1 AGO-related cargo (LAUSU, pending confirmation of type).
- Estimated volume: 15,000 MT
Price Stagnation Across Depots
Depot prices gathered on May 30, 2025, show remarkable uniformity across the downstream market:
| Depot | AGO Price (₦/Litre) | Change |
| FIRST ROYAL, TMDK, CHISCO, MAO, EMADEB, MENJ | ₦912 | 0% |
| NIPCO, IBETO, AFRICAN TERMINAL, IBACHEM, INTERGRATED | ₦915 | 0% |
| DANGOTE | ₦918 | 0% |
| FIRST FORTUNE, MATRIX WARRI, ZAMSON | ₦950 | 0% |
| EDO REFINERY, SHARON, OPTIMA, PINNACLE WARRI, PRUDENT OGHARA, A.Y.M SHAFA | ₦948 – ₦950 | 0% |
The lack of movement in these depot prices, despite oil price volatility globally, further underscores the domestic supply glut of diesel.
Why Prices Are Falling
Industry analysts attribute the price stagnation to excessive diesel inventory at depots, driven by:
- Heavy AGO inflows from importers and Dangote Refinery
- Low demand from industrial sectors due to ongoing grid stability and reduced generator dependence
- Increasing competitive pressure among marketers to offload stock
Looking Ahead
Unless the pace of diesel imports slows or local demand spikes, marketers may have to reduce prices further to clear inventory. That could bring relief to manufacturers and logistics operators, but poses risks for importers sitting on high-cost stock.
With Dangote Refinery also in the mix and ramping up local AGO output, the downstream diesel market may remain bearish for the foreseeable future.