The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has reported that the average retail price of Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) fell slightly month-on-month but surged nearly 30% year-on-year, underscoring persistent inflationary pressures in Nigeria’s energy sector.
According to its latest “Automotive Gas Oil (Diesel) Price Watch” for July 2025, the average diesel price stood at ₦1,789.45 per litre, representing a 1.34% decline from ₦1,813.81 recorded in June 2025. However, when compared to July 2024, the price reflects a 29.72% increase, up from ₦1,379.48 per litre.
Regional price disparities
The report highlighted sharp price variations across states. Benue (₦2,341.46), Adamawa (₦2,163.88), and Plateau (N2,029.71) recorded the highest diesel prices in July. Conversely, Ondo (₦1,465.71), Zamfara (₦1,470.35), and Gombe (₦1,485.00) posted the lowest prices, reflecting a wide supply-cost differential between regions.
When grouped by geopolitical zones, the South-South led with the highest average price of ₦1,941.98, while the South-West recorded the lowest at ₦1,619.06. Other zones followed with North-Central at ₦1,873.94, North-West at ₦1,769.47, South-East at ₦1,753.13, and North-East at ₦1,762.32.
Broader economic implications
The latest figures mirror ongoing cost burdens for businesses and households heavily reliant on diesel. Transport operators, manufacturers, and agro-processors continue to face higher input costs, raising concerns about pass-through inflation.
Meanwhile, headline inflation eased slightly to 21.88% in July 2025, down from 22.22% in June. Core inflation also fell to 21.33%, compared with 27.47% in July 2024, signalling a gradual deceleration. Despite this, energy-linked inflation remains a significant driver of cost pressures.
Market trends
Industry analysts note that sustained volatility in the diesel market reflects structural weaknesses in local refining, persistent reliance on imports, and fluctuating foreign exchange liquidity. Additionally, states such as Benue, Adamawa, and Plateau have consistently ranked among the costliest for diesel from April through July 2025, suggesting entrenched distribution bottlenecks and supply inefficiencies.
On the flip side, states like Ondo and Zamfara continue to benefit from relatively lower logistics costs and supply proximity, cushioning price escalations.
What this means
While July’s month-on-month decline offers marginal relief, the year-on-year spike of nearly 30% underlines the burden on industries and households. Without improved domestic refining capacity and more efficient distribution, diesel prices are likely to remain volatile, feeding into higher operating costs and inflationary risks across the Nigerian economy.