Diesel prices in Nigerian depots are edging closer to the ₦900 per litre threshold as market forces converge around oversupply, weakening demand, and aggressive price-matching strategies between private depot owners and the Dangote Refinery. From a high of over ₦1,100 in March, diesel now trades between ₦911 and ₦950 across key locations, with expectations that prices may soon fall further.
“The prices have dropped sharply in the last two months from over ₦1,100 to ₦911, ₦912, ₦915,” a depot marketer confirmed. “The influx of the diesel vessels has helped reduce the price, with Dangote’s influence.”
Tanker Influx Floods the Market
According to Petroleumprice.ng and the daily oil and gas intelligence report, Nigeria witnessed a sharp rise in diesel importation in just 24 days. No fewer than 14 AGO tankers, delivering an estimated 341,800 metric tonnes, docked at major ports including Lagos, Port Harcourt, Warri, and Calabar.
Vessel Breakdown by Port:
- Lagos: 6 vessels, 142,000 MT
- STI MERAUX – 44,000 MT
- ELLIE M II – 27,000 MT
- MYCROFT – 5,000 MT (part AGO)
- Port Harcourt: 4 vessels, 70,000 MT
- HOLMES – 20,000 MT
- VIRGO 1, ASHABI
- Warri: 3 vessels, 58,400 MT
- BURAN, FATIMA ZARAH, MYCROFT
- Calabar: 1 vessel, estimated 15,000 MT (type pending)
“There is a large influx. You can quote that write-up where the guy said maybe 14 or 15 tankers,” said the source. “Dangote is set to reduce prices due to price match between the private depots and the refinery with these factors, price will drop.”
This volume, coupled with increased diesel production from the Dangote Refinery, has pushed the downstream sector into surplus territory.
Depot Price Matrix – Diesel (AGO) and Petrol (PMS) as of 5 June 2025
| Depot | Diesel (AGO) (₦/Litre) | Petrol (PMS) (₦/Litre) |
|---|---|---|
| CHISCO | ₦911 | |
| MAO | ₦912 | |
| IBACHEM | ₦915 | — |
| WOSBAB | ₦915 | — |
| PRUDENT (Lagos) | ₦915 | — |
| IBETO | ₦915 | — |
| CHIPET | ₦915 | — |
| INTERGRATED | ₦915 | ₦827 |
| DANGOTE | ₦917 | ₦828 |
| NIPCO (Lagos) | ₦925 | ₦832 |
| EDO Refinery | ₦940 | — |
| SHARON | ₦940 | — |
| OPTIMA | ₦940 | — |
| MATRIX (Warri) | ₦940 | ₦850 |
| PINNACLE (Warri) | ₦940 | ₦850 |
| PRUDENT (Oghara) | ₦945 | ₦856 |
| TAURUS | ₦945 | — |
| A.Y.M SHAFA | ₦940 | ₦850 |
| BULK Strategic | ₦945 | — |
| FIRST FORTUNE | ₦950 | ₦855 |
| BONO | ₦985 | — |
| DUPORT | ₦985 | — |
| AITEO | — | ₦825 |
| MENJ | — | ₦826 |
| A.A RANO | — | ₦827 |
| EMADEB | — | ₦827 |
| A&E | — | ₦850 |
| HYDE | — | ₦868 |
| MASTERS | — | ₦869 |
| SIGMUND | — | ₦869 |
| TSL | — | ₦867 |
| RAINOIL (Delta) | — | ₦850 |
| NORTHWEST | — | ₦869 |
| EVER | — | ₦869 |
“Depots that have diesel are now much more than those that only have Petrol,” one industry analyst explained. “It shows diesel has had a large influx in the last 30 days.”
Market Drivers: Oversupply, Grid Stability, and Price Wars
This downward trend in diesel pricing is not occurring in isolation. Several market dynamics are converging:
- Excess Stock: The arrival of large diesel cargoes and active supply from Dangote have outpaced downstream demand.
- Grid Stability: Improved power supply has reduced diesel consumption by manufacturers and households.
- Price Matching: Dangote Refinery’s strategy to align its AGO price with that of private depot owners is disrupting traditional pricing structures.
According to industry insiders, some importers are now under pressure to sell at a loss to avoid prolonged storage costs and capital tie-up.
At the FBV Filling Station in Igando, diesel is currently retailing at ₦965 per litre, compared to ₦1,150 in March demonstrating a significant drop in just 60 days.
Economic Impact: Who Gains and Who Loses?
- Winners:
- Transport and Logistics firms are benefitting from reduced fuel costs.
- Manufacturers are experiencing marginal cost relief in operations.
- Households reliant on generators for power have reduced expenses.
- Losers:
- Importers and depot operators who bought AGO at higher rates are facing compressed margins.
- Smaller marketers may struggle to compete with Dangote’s economies of scale.
“Marketers may have to reduce prices further to clear inventory. That could bring relief to manufacturers and logistics operators but poses risks for importers sitting on high-cost stock,” concluded a PetroleumPrice.ng analyst.
Outlook: Sub-₦900 Diesel Prices on the Horizon
Unless import volumes are scaled back or industrial demand rises sharply, the diesel price curve is expected to continue its downward slope. With over 20 depots actively quoting AGO, competition remains stiff and any further tanker arrivals could force another round of price cuts.
“This is not just seasonal fluctuation; it’s structural pressure from overlapping supply sources,” one trader observed. “If Dangote continues full-scale output, and demand stays this low, sub-₦900 diesel is not just possible it’s imminent.”