Nigeria’s diesel market is showing early signs of supply strain, with Lagos, the country’s primary petroleum trading hub, recording declining depot inventories and a sharp upward movement in prices.
Market data indicates that only about 10 out of roughly 52 depots in Lagos currently have Automotive Gas Oil in stock, with most operating at low inventory levels. The development has raised concerns among market participants about a potential supply shortfall if replenishment does not improve in the near term.
Industry sources attribute the tightening supply to a combination of rising landing costs and cautious import activity. Importers are reportedly slowing procurement amid international market uncertainties, while product specification preferences continue to influence buying decisions, particularly for imported diesel within the 0.83 to 0.84 density.
Prices have responded quickly to the supply pressure. Diesel moved from about ₦1,750 per litre earlier in the week to approximately ₦1,850 per litre the following day, representing a 5.7 percent increase within 24 hours.
Depot Price Movements Across Key Locations
A review of depot pricing between April 21 and April 23 shows a consistent upward trend across major supply hubs.
In Lagos, diesel traded at ₦1,760 per litre on April 21 at depots such as Nipco, Ardova, and Ibachem. By April 22, prices rose significantly, with Sahara, Duport, Ibeto, and Ibachem posting ₦1,860 per litre, while other depots, including TMDK, Duport, and Ibachem, adjusted to ₦1,850 per litre. On April 23, prices remained elevated, with Ibachem and Integrated at ₦1,860 per litre and TMDK at ₦1,845 per litre, while Nipco recorded ₦1,800 per litre.
In Warri, diesel prices increased from a high of ₦1,830 per litre on April 21 at Matrix and AYM Shafa to ₦1,850 per litre on April 22. By April 23, the highest recorded prices reached ₦1,950 per litre at Matrix and AYM Shafa, indicating sustained upward pressure.
Port Harcourt followed a similar pattern. On April 21, diesel traded at ₦1,850 per litre at Matrix and Sigmund. Prices adjusted slightly on April 22 to around ₦1,830 per litre at Bulk Strategic, before rising sharply to ₦1,950 per litre on April 23 at Matrix, Sigmund, and Sahara depots.
The observed price movements reflect tightening supply conditions rather than demand weakness, as depots adjust rates in response to limited product availability and replacement cost uncertainties.
With Lagos inventories already constrained and prices rising across multiple regions, current market signals suggest increasing pressure on diesel supply chains. If restocking remains limited, the situation could develop into a broader supply challenge in the coming weeks.