Global diesel markets have become the primary source of supply concerns in the oil sector as refinery disruptions and lower processing activity continue to constrain fuel availability, according to Goldman Sachs.
In a research note cited by Bloomberg, the investment bank said diesel is now at the centre of the current fuel supply tightness, with refinery outages and reduced operating rates weighing more heavily on refined product markets than on crude oil supplies.
Goldman Sachs estimated that global refinery throughput in July declined by as much as 6.5 million barrels per daycompared with the same period in 2025, making it the lowest level of refining activity for this time of year since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
The bank attributed the decline to refinery outages in the Middle East and Russia, alongside lower refinery utilisation in China. It added that increased refining output in the Americas and Africa has replaced only about one-third of the supply lost from the affected regions.
According to Goldman Sachs, diesel exports fell by about 35 percent, or 2.6 million barrels per day, during July, contributing to tighter middle distillate markets and inventories that remain below seasonal averages.
The bank also noted that refining margins have remained at record highs despite fluctuations in crude oil prices, reflecting tighter conditions in refined petroleum products than in crude oil markets.
Goldman Sachs said supply of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel has remained under pressure for several months as conflicts involving Iran and Ukraine continue to disrupt refinery operations and refined fuel production.
The assessment aligns with comments made last week by International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol, who said refinery activity and refined product supplies have not recovered at the same pace as crude oil deliveries.
According to Birol, markets for refined petroleum products, including diesel and gasoline, remain considerably tighter than crude oil markets, highlighting the growing influence of refinery operations on global fuel supply.