Nigeria’s daily diesel receipts fell to 8.7 million litres in September 2026, the lowest level in 13 months, as domestic supplies and imports declined sharply despite an increase in consumption to 14.5 million litres per day.
A review of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority’s (NMDPRA) September 2026 factsheet by Petroleumprice.ng showed that domestic diesel receipts dropped by 39 percent, from approximately 13.3 million litres per day in August to 8.1 million litres in September. Imports also fell by 54 percent, from about 1.3 million litres to 600,000 litres daily.
The combined decline pushed total diesel receipts down by 40 percent from 14.5 million litres per day in August, marking the lowest level recorded in the 13-month period covered by the regulator’s data.
The NMDPRA attributed the reduction in diesel receipts to lower imports and reduced domestic evacuation amid high prices, highlighting the supply pressures affecting the market during the month.
Despite the decline in receipts, diesel consumption increased slightly to 14.5 million litres per day in September, up 1 percent from 14.3 million litres per day in August.
The September consumption figure was also 500,000 litres per day above the regulator’s benchmark demand of 14 million litres, indicating that daily demand remained higher than the benchmark while incoming supplies contracted.
The divergence between receipts and consumption means Nigeria received substantially less diesel each day than it consumed during September. However, the regulator’s figures do not, by themselves, establish how much of the difference was met through withdrawals from existing stocks or other supply adjustments.
Nigeria’s diesel stock sufficiency stood at 49.7 days in September, down from 51.6 days in August, according to the NMDPRA factsheet.
Although the stock-cover figure declined by 1.9 days, it remained 19.7 days above the regulator’s 30-day threshold. This indicates that reported inventories continued to provide a buffer despite the fall in daily receipts.
The stock-cover measure estimates how long available inventories could meet demand at the relevant consumption rate. It does not mean that every location had sufficient diesel available or that all users could access supplies at the same price.
The NMDPRA’s September data showed that the Dangote Refinery produced an average of 24.32 million litres of automotive gas oil (AGO), commonly known as diesel, per day.
Of this volume, approximately 8.14 million litres per day went into domestic receipts, while 15.91 million litres per day was recorded as exports. The refinery also added about 270,000 litres per day to its diesel stock, with closing stocks reported at 232.5 million litres.
The refinery’s reported domestic receipts were broadly in line with the national domestic-receipts figure of approximately 8.1 million litres per day recorded in the factsheet.
The figures show a substantial difference between the refinery’s reported daily diesel production and the volume recorded as domestic receipts. The regulator’s data also show that exports accounted for a significant share of the refinery’s reported diesel output during the month.
The refinery operated at 105.98 percent of its installed capacity of 650,000 barrels per day across its reported operations in September. This utilisation figure relates to the refinery’s overall operations and should not be interpreted as a diesel-only utilisation rate.
Nigeria’s modular refineries collectively supplied approximately 620,000 litres of diesel per day in September, representing about 4.3 percent of national diesel consumption of 14.5 million litres per day.
The NMDPRA factsheet listed Walter Smith, Edo Refinery, Aradel and OPAC among the modular refineries with reported diesel production and domestic supply figures. Duport Refinery was listed as shut down, with no production or supply figures recorded.
Walter Smith operated at 62.25 percent utilisation, producing approximately 290,000 litres of diesel per day and recording domestic supply of 310,000 litres per day.
Edo Refinery recorded utilisation of 104.24 percent, with daily diesel production and domestic supply both standing at approximately 90,000 litres.
Aradel operated at 31.90 percent utilisation, producing about 140,000 litres of diesel per day and supplying approximately 120,000 litres domestically.
OPAC recorded utilisation of 18.43 percent, with diesel production of about 140,000 litres per day and domestic supply of 110,000 litres.
The regulator identified feedstock challenges and maintenance shutdowns as factors affecting Aradel and OPAC. Duport was listed as shut down during the reporting period.
The combined domestic supply from the listed modular refineries remained a relatively small share of Nigeria’s reported diesel consumption. At approximately 620,000 litres per day, their contribution was considerably below the 8.1 million litres per day recorded as total domestic diesel receipts.
The NMDPRA also reported that crude oil receipts across Nigerian refineries averaged 618,000 barrels per day in September, down from 681,000 barrels per day in August, a decline of approximately 9 percent.
The crude-receipts figures cover refineries collectively and should not be attributed exclusively to modular refineries. The factsheet also recorded cumulative refinery crude receipts of 156.51 million barrels between January and September 2026, comprising 80.4 percent domestic crude and 19.6 percent imported crude.
While these figures provide wider context for refinery operations, the NMDPRA’s diesel data specifically identified lower imports and reduced domestic evacuation amid high prices as the immediate factors behind the September decline in receipts.
Overall, the September figures show that Nigeria’s daily diesel receipts contracted sharply while consumption edged higher. Although reported stock sufficiency remained above the regulator’s 30-day threshold, the decline in incoming supplies and the relatively limited contribution from modular refineries underline the importance of monitoring domestic deliveries, imports, refinery output and inventory levels in the coming months.