Newly released Epstein files reveal that the late American financier Jeffrey Epstein once explored trading Nigerian crude. However, he pulled back, fearing fraud linked to Nigeria’s state oil company, NNPCL.
The documents highlight a global dimension to the long-standing allegations against the national oil company, which has struggled with corruption, opaque accounting, and missing revenues for decades.
Emails Show Epstein’s Interest—and Sudden Retreat
In a 2010 email exchange with a contact identified as David Stern, Epstein discussed the logistics of lifting Nigerian crude and working with NNPCL.
He initially considered the opportunity promising. But, concerned about being cheated, he decided to step away from the deal. This hesitation is notable given Epstein’s later history of using deception to amass wealth.
NNPCL’s Troubled History
Epstein’s caution reflects broader risks associated with NNPCL. The company has long faced accusations of failing to remit massive oil revenues.
Audits have repeatedly flagged billions in missing funds. A 2016 audit noted $16 billion in unpaid revenues, while other reports highlighted at least $1.48 billion in unaccounted funds. More recent 2025 investigations cited over ₦210 trillion (about $153 billion) in unexplained revenue.
State-owned refineries have also been inefficient despite billions spent on “turnaround maintenance.” Critics claim inflated contracts, mismanagement, and widespread oil theft. Some former officials have faced bribery and money-laundering scandals, while hubs like Bonny suffered production losses from vandalism.
In 2022, NNPC was restructured into NNPCL under the Petroleum Industry Act, aiming for a commercial model with better accountability. Yet systemic problems persist, limiting investor confidence.
Dangote Refinery Changes the Game
By contrast, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery is reshaping Nigeria’s fuel market. The $20 billion, 650,000-barrel-per-day facility produces refined products for local use and export.
It now ships diesel and aviation fuel to Europe and gasoline to the U.S., meeting Euro V standards. Local production has cut Nigeria’s petrol imports to the lowest levels since 2017, easing foreign exchange pressure.
The refinery also disrupts a long-standing gasoline-for-crude trade that has benefited European refiners, threatening a $17 billion annual market.
Dangote plans further expansion. Recently, its petroleum, fertilizer, and cement subsidiaries signed expanded Gas Sales and Purchase Agreements with NNPCL. These contracts secure gas to support higher output and industrial growth.
For Nigeria, the deals align with ambitions to raise gas production to 10 billion cubic feet per day by 2027 and attract over $60 billion in gas investments by 2030. For the refinery, it supports plans to expand beyond 650,000 barrels per day.
The Epstein revelations and Dangote’s rise highlight a clear contrast: NNPCL remains entangled in structural inefficiencies, while Dangote is redefining how Nigeria engages with the global energy market.