Senior executives at two of the world's largest oil companies have issued stark warnings that crude oil prices could surge to between $150 and $160 per barrel within weeks, as global inventories drain toward levels that industry models describe as an operational floor.
Speaking at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference on Thursday, Exxon Senior Vice President Neil Chapman said commercial stocks of crude oil and refined products have fallen to near historic lows, warning that the market is fast approaching a point of no return.
"We're approaching unheard of inventory levels. I mean, really, really low levels," Chapman said. "Once you get to that point, then you'll see price shoot up. A model would say dated Brent will shoot up once you get to that really low inventory level, up to $150, $160."
Chapman said the drawdown has so far been masked by releases from strategic petroleum reserves across Western countries and flows of sanctioned oil from Iran, Russia and Venezuela, but cautioned that those buffers are nearly exhausted. "Crude being in this sort of $90 to $110 range for the last several weeks has really been mitigated by running down inventories. It can't last forever."
Chevron Chief Executive Mike Wirth, also speaking at the conference, said the market's capacity to absorb the current supply disruption has been critically weakened. "The buffers and the shock absorbers are being steadily drawn down, and the ability for the market to absorb this imbalance is drastically diminished today versus where we started," he said.
Wirth warned that pressure on physical prices would intensify in the coming weeks. "Over the next few weeks, we're likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices and there's more upwards pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July."
The warnings come amid a continuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one fifth of global crude supply transits daily. The disruption has removed an estimated 12 to 13 million barrels per day from global markets. Data from Goldman Sachs shows global oil inventories fell by a record 8.7 million barrels per day in May alone, even as prices paradoxically declined over the same period amid market optimism over a potential United States Iran deal.
JPMorgan has previously calculated that of the 8.4 billion barrels held in global inventories at the start of 2026, only 0.8 billion barrels were realistically accessible before the system enters operational stress, a threshold analysts now say could be breached as early as June for OECD commercial stocks.
There is no near term resolution in sight for the Hormuz closure. Sultan al Jaber, chief executive of Abu Dhabi's state oil company ADNOC, said last week that even if the conflict ends imminently, full transit flows would not return before the first or second quarter of 2027. "It will take at least four months to get back to 80% of pre conflict flows," al Jaber said.
Wirth also flagged the long term implications of the crisis for energy security policy, noting that governments would be forced to rebuild strategic reserves once the disruption ends, adding a fresh layer of demand pressure on an already strained market. He cautioned that a prolonged crisis risked tipping the global economy into a slowdown or recession, which could dampen demand and partially offset the price surge.
For Nigeria, the stakes are direct. Bonny Light crude gained more than six percent on Thursday, reflecting the same supply anxiety driving the broader market. A sustained move toward $150 Brent would significantly raise landing costs for petroleum product imports, with downstream consequences for pump prices and refinery feedstock economics.