Nigeria earned ₦5.21 trillion from crude oil, gas sales, and related activities in the first half of 2025, according to figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). The inflow accounts for 42.7% of the record ₦12.2 trillion generated in the whole of 2024 but covers just 34.7% of the ₦15 trillion revenue target set for 2025.
The NUPRC report, presented at the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) meeting, shows that the January–June earnings included ₦1.04 trillion from Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) joint venture and production sharing contract royalties. Another ₦315.93 billion came from Project Gazelle receipts recorded in January and March 2025, with no inflows for February, April, May, or June.
The data also revealed that NNPCL’s joint venture royalty receivables from October 2022 to June 2025 totalled ₦6.60 trillion, reflecting delayed remittances from oil companies.
To fund the 2025 budget, the Commission is aiming to hit ₦15 trillion in revenue. NUPRC Chief Executive Gbenga Komolafe said the agency was developing “a strategic approach” to meet the target, describing it as “ambitious but achievable” after surpassing its 2024 goal by 163%.
The report further confirmed the recovery of $459,226 from outstanding obligations, part of a $1.436 billion cumulative debt from crude lifting contracts, leaving $1.435 billion still owed. This recovery formed part of a reconciliation exercise between NNPCL and the Federation under the Alignment Committee’s technical sub-committee.
However, at the current pace, analysts warn the Commission could fall short of its target unless crude output rises and outstanding debts are cleared faster.
Experts Warn Against Over-Taxing the Industry
Industry analysts have cautioned the Federal Government against turning the NUPRC into a primarily revenue-driven entity, warning that over-taxation could deter investment and undermine regulation.
Energy policy analyst and lecturer Dayo Ayoade stressed that while collecting statutory payments is part of the Commission’s role, its primary mandate under the Petroleum Industry Act is technical and commercial regulation. “When a regulator becomes overly focused on revenue, it risks neglecting its oversight duties and pushing investors away,” he said.
Petroleum engineer Bala Zaka blamed persistent revenue struggles on years of “hostility” toward investors, citing harassment, sabotage, community disputes, and high security costs as key factors driving multinationals out of Nigeria. He noted that many relocated operations to East Africa, while some indigenous firms that took over assets have failed to invest in reserve growth or exploration.
“High production equals higher revenue,” Zaka said. “But with insecurity in hubs like Warri and companies shifting to other locations, even Lagos output has stagnated, and the revenue shortfall was inevitable.”
Both experts urged the government to prioritise sector stability, enhance security in oil-producing regions, streamline regulation, and incentivise exploration to sustainably grow revenues without undermining the industry’s future.