Rising crude oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran are increasing the likelihood of further petrol price hikes, as uncertainty surrounds the status of the Strait of Hormuz.
As of 9:30 a.m. WAT, global oil benchmarks moved higher, reflecting growing market anxiety. WTI crude was trading at 100.4 dollars per barrel, up 2.17 percent, while Brent crude rose to 113.7 dollars per barrel, gaining 1.30 percent. The upward movement underscores tightening supply expectations as traders respond to the risk of further disruption in one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes.
The Strait of Hormuz remains central to global energy security, with roughly one fifth of internationally traded oil passing through the narrow channel. Any restriction or full closure is expected to significantly reduce available supply, pushing prices higher and impacting fuel markets worldwide.
The latest developments follow a 48 hour ultimatum issued by Donald Trump, warning of possible strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure if the waterway is not fully reopened. The deadline has heightened concerns of a broader escalation that could extend beyond military targets to critical economic assets.
Iranian authorities have maintained that the strait remains under controlled access. “We have repeatedly said the Strait of Hormuz is closed only to the enemy and to harmful traffic,” army spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari said on state television, adding that transit continues under conditions aligned with national security considerations.
However, he warned that any attack on Iran’s power infrastructure would trigger immediate retaliatory measures, including a full shutdown of the strait and coordinated strikes on energy and infrastructure assets across the region.
Market participants say the uncertainty is already filtering into downstream supply chains. Private fuel depots are expected to either delay sales or adjust prices upward in anticipation of further increases in crude oil costs, particularly if tensions escalate.
The International Energy Agency has indicated it is prepared to coordinate additional emergency oil releases if necessary but emphasised that restoring normal operations through the Strait of Hormuz remains the most effective path to stabilising markets.
With both sides maintaining firm positions and the deadline approaching, analysts expect continued volatility in oil prices. For fuel dependent economies, the combination of rising crude costs and supply risks points to sustained upward pressure on petrol prices in the near term.