Following a 15% drop in depot prices, petrol prices are expected to stabilise or see slight decreases in the coming week, spurred by increased supply from both the Dangote refinery and imported petroleum products by independent oil marketers. This week’s average depot price of petrol (PMS) sits around ₦1,040 – ₦1,045 per litre, with leading depots like Dangote, Pinnacle, and Nipco pricing at or slightly above ₦1,040.
Here’s what to expect:
Depot Prices Likely to Decline Marginally: With the recent price adjustments, we anticipate a slight downward trend across depots. Given that major depots like Dangote, Aipec, and Nipco are offering petrol around ₦1,040, it’s likely that these price levels will hold or experience minor reductions over the week.
Price Variation by Supplier: On October 10, Depot prices for PMS ranged between ₦1150 and ₦1200. Depots with higher initial prices, such as A.A Rano and AP Ardova (last week’s ₦1,075 and ₦1,080, respectively), may see more substantial price adjustments towards the average. However, suppliers who adjusted prices earlier, such as Dangote and Pinnacle, may see smaller changes due to already competitive pricing.
Low Consumption Impact: With petrol consumption down to just 4.5 million litres daily—a massive reduction from 60 million litres per day in 2023—the lower demand further supports a stable to slightly declining price trend, as supply outpaces demand.
Expected Range for PMS: For this period, we project PMS prices across depots to fall between ₦1,035 – ₦1,045 per litre, with a potential ₦5 reduction for depots maintaining higher-than-average prices.
The cumulative effect of increased supply and decreased demand will likely sustain depot petrol prices below previous highs, providing short-term relief for the market and potentially encouraging stability through early November.