The Nigerian petroleum market may experience a modest increase in depot prices this week, following a combination of rising international oil prices and a brief domestic distribution shutdown caused by the long weekend holiday.
From Friday, June 6 to Monday, June 9, most major petroleum depots across the country halted operations in observance of the national public holiday, slowing down inland supply to retail stations.
As at Friday, Brent crude was trading at $66.46 per barrel, but by Tuesday morning it climbed to $67.91, reflecting rising demand expectations globally and tighter output forecasts due to Canadian wildfire threats and Middle East tensions.
Depots Closed, Trucks Stalled
The depot closures, though brief, have created ripple effects across the fuel distribution chain. Industry watchers expect pump prices to reflect the impact in the coming days, especially in high-demand urban areas.
“Depots shut down from Friday through Monday, so trucks couldn’t load, and most filling stations ran low on supply,” said Aminu Musa, a depot marketer in Oghara, Delta State. “Now, everyone is scrambling to catch up.”
Few depots that shut down due to the holiday are:
- Calabar: Mainland
- Port Harcourt: Ever Oil and Sigmund
- Warri: First Fortune and Rainoil
- Lagos: Wosbab, Aipec, and Techno Oil
These closures halted product loading and dispatch operations, contributing to the current supply lag.
Global Crude Prices Add Pressure
Global markets are also contributing to the projected rise in fuel prices. Brent crude’s week-start rally stems from a mix of increased summer travel demand in the U.S., ongoing OPEC+ output cuts, and a weaker dollar boosting commodity prices.
“Crude prices are reacting to fundamentals, especially the demand-side optimism out of China and the U.S.,” said Chinelo Okoye, an energy economist. “Unfortunately for net importers or countries still tied to dollar-priced fuel, this pushes up local costs despite local refining improvements.”
Local Fuel Prices Likely to Tick Up
Nigeria now refines more of its fuel locally through the Dangote Refinery, but global market forces and forex fluctuations still shape prices especially for depots that import or source products offshore.
In the past week, depot-level PMS prices remained between ₦828 to ₦850/litre, but may climb by ₦5–₦10 per litre if supply remains tight and crude prices stay elevated.
“We expect some pump stations to raise prices slightly this week. Nothing drastic, but it’s a reflection of short-term pressure from both supply chain delays and international benchmarks,” said Uchenna Eze, a marketer in the Satellite axis of Lagos.
What to Watch This Week
- Depot Restocking: As depots resume full operations from Tuesday, turnaround times for loading and dispatch will determine how quickly supply catches up with demand.
- Brent Price Trends: If Brent crude continues to hover above $67–$68, there may be sustained pressure on domestic pricing.
- Forex Volatility: Exchange rate stability will also influence ex-depot price ceilings.
Outlook
For now, the expected surge in fuel prices appears mild and manageable. However, market watchers advise commuters, transporters, and businesses to prepare for short-term price volatility as global and local conditions remain fluid.
“This isn’t panic territory,” said Okoye. “But it’s a reminder that even with local refining, Nigeria’s fuel market is still exposed to international price shocks and internal logistics disruptions.”
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