The Federal Government has expressed confidence that prices of petrol, diesel and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) will continue to decline across Nigeria, citing rising supply volumes, stronger competition and sustained private sector investments in the oil and gas industry.
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) said the pricing outlook reflects early gains from market-led reforms in the downstream sector, following the removal of fuel subsidy and increased refining and midstream activities.
Market Competition Driving Price Stability
Speaking during an inspection of Aradel Holdings Plc facilities in Ogbele community, Ahoada East Local Government Area of Rivers State, NMDPRA Chief Executive, Mr Saidu Mohammed, said improved product availability was already translating into lower pump prices nationwide.
According to him, petrol prices have dropped significantly due to competitive supply dynamics, noting that increased participation by private operators had reduced pressure on distribution channels.
“The more supply we have, the lower the price. This is already evident as petrol has dropped from about ₦1,000 to ₦800 per litre due to competition,” Mohammed said.
He explained that subsidy removal allowed market forces to operate efficiently, enabling investors to optimise logistics, pricing and distribution without distortions.
Refining Capacity Key to Sustained Price Decline
Mohammed stressed that sustaining the downward price trend would depend largely on expanding Nigeria’s refining and conversion capacity. He said additional refineries with the ability to produce petrol, diesel, fuel oil, naphtha and LPG were critical to meeting domestic demand.
While acknowledging Nigeria’s export ambitions, the NMDPRA chief said local consumption must remain the priority.
“Domestic demand must be adequately met by local operators before large-scale exports can commence,” he said.
On government-owned refineries, Mohammed said operational responsibility rested with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd), adding that regulatory engagements were ongoing to ensure steady crude supply and product evacuation at the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries.
He noted that restoring loading activities would stimulate host communities and improve product circulation even before full-scale operations resume.
Midstream Investments Reshaping Energy Supply
Mohammed described the midstream segment as Nigeria’s strongest economic growth driver, capable of unlocking value across manufacturing, transportation and power generation.
He commended Aradel Holdings for demonstrating indigenous capacity in refinery ownership and operations, noting that the company had operated an 11,000-barrels-per-day refinery and supplied gas to Nigeria LNG for over a decade.
According to him, Aradel’s expansion programme would enable petrol loading from its facility before the end of 2027.
Responding, Aradel Managing Director, Mr Adegbite Falade, reaffirmed the company’s commitment to expanding refining capacity and commercialising gas assets.
“We are scaling beyond current capacity and prioritising domestic energy needs. Nigerians should expect continued local value addition and stable supply,” Falade said.
Mohammed assured investors that NMDPRA would continue to provide regulatory incentives to attract large-scale investments into the midstream and downstream sectors, insisting that sustained competition—not subsidies—remains the most reliable path to affordable fuel prices.