Billionaire investor Femi Otedola has said the naira may strengthen to below ₦1,000 per dollar before the end of 2026, citing Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s attainment of full production capacity as a major catalyst.
In a post shared on X on Thursday, Otedola described the refinery’s ramp-up to its full 650,000 barrels-per-day capacity as a turning point for Nigeria’s foreign exchange outlook. He congratulated Aliko Dangote on what he called a landmark achievement for both Nigeria and the African continent.
FX Relief from Reduced Fuel Imports
Otedola noted that the refinery can now supply up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily. According to him, sustained domestic refining will sharply reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel, which has long strained the country’s foreign exchange reserves.
“With domestic refining now firmly underway after decades of reliance on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly,” he wrote.
He added that improved dollar liquidity could strengthen the naira meaningfully, making sub-₦1,000/$ levels achievable before year-end.
Nigeria has historically spent billions of dollars each year importing refined petroleum products due to limited local refining capacity. Fuel imports remain one of the largest components of the country’s import bill and a major driver of dollar demand. Analysts have consistently argued that large-scale domestic refining would conserve foreign reserves and stabilise the currency.
Expansion Plan Targets 1.4 Million bpd
Beyond current output levels, Otedola disclosed that Dangote has launched a $12 billion expansion project to raise total refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day over the next three years.
The expansion will also introduce petrochemical production, including 2.4 million tonnes of polypropylene and 400,000 metric tonnes of Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB) annually. Polypropylene serves the plastics and packaging industries, while LAB is a key ingredient in detergent manufacturing.
Increased local production of these materials could reduce import dependence in Nigeria’s manufacturing sector and further lower demand for foreign exchange.
“Aliko is not stopping here,” Otedola stated, confirming that work on the expansion has already begun.
Refinery Confirms Full Nameplate Capacity
The Dangote Refinery, located in the Lekki Free Zone, Lagos, is the world’s largest single-train refinery, designed to process 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day.
The company recently announced that it had achieved full nameplate capacity following the optimisation of its Crude Distillation Unit (CDU) and Motor Spirit (MS) production block. It described the milestone as a historic first for a refinery of its size operating on a single train.
To validate operational stability and efficiency, the refinery has commenced a 72-hour performance test run in collaboration with its technology licensor, UOP. The tests aim to confirm that output meets global technical standards.
At full capacity, the refinery is expected to meet Nigeria’s domestic demand for petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel, with surplus volumes available for export—an outcome that could reshape the country’s energy trade balance and foreign exchange dynamics.