Global oil inventories have dropped to their lowest level in nearly a decade in 2026, heightening concerns about the market’s resilience to further supply disruptions, according to an analysis by Goldman Sachs.
The bank estimates that global crude and fuel stocks now cover about 101 days of demand, marking the lowest level in roughly eight years. Analysts noted that the pace of inventory drawdown has accelerated sharply, tightening supply buffers across major consuming regions.
Goldman Sachs warned that stock levels could decline further to around 98 days of demand by the end of May if current conditions persist, particularly with tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz still significantly constrained.
While inventories are not expected to reach historic lows, the rapid depletion rate is emerging as a key concern. The bank highlighted that supply losses across certain regions and refined product segments are occurring faster than anticipated, increasing the market’s exposure to shocks.
Refined product inventories have declined more steeply than crude, with fuel stock cover now estimated at about 45 days of demand, down from around 50 days before the recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Analysts noted that readily accessible reserves are approaching critically low levels.
The tightening supply outlook coincides with ongoing instability in the Persian Gulf, where disruptions to shipping have limited normal crude flows. Efforts to restore maritime activity in the Strait of Hormuz have faced challenges, while attacks on vessels and infrastructure continue to affect operations.
Market observers say the uncertainty has delayed expectations for a full reopening of the key trade route, prolonging supply constraints and reinforcing upward pressure on prices.
The combination of declining inventories and persistent geopolitical risks has contributed to heightened volatility in global energy markets, with prices responding to shifting expectations around supply availability.