Global oil supply concerns deepened on Tuesday as shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz fell dramatically following escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. Fresh maritime data shows that barely 90 vessels have crossed the critical route since hostilities began—down from over 100 ships moving through the corridor daily before the crisis.
The development underscores growing tension around one of the world’s most strategic oil transit routes, through which a significant share of global crude exports flows.
The sharp drop in traffic signals rising risks to supply chains already strained by geopolitical uncertainty.
Available tracking data indicates that many of the vessels still navigating the route are oil tankers operating under restricted visibility, often linked to Iranian trade flows. Analysts say this reflects a selective passage system now in place, with Iran effectively controlling access to the waterway.
Despite the disruption, Iran has continued to export crude, shipping over 16 million barrels since the start of the conflict. Officials in Tehran insist the route remains open—but only to countries and entities not aligned with its adversaries.
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Aragchi, made this position clear, stating that the strait is accessible to neutral and allied vessels, while those linked to opposing nations face restrictions. The statement reinforces concerns that energy flows are increasingly being shaped by political alignments rather than open market dynamics.
There are also indications that Iran is exploring alternative trade arrangements, including discussions with China to allow tanker access under yuan-based transactions. This could explain the steady, though limited, movement of Chinese-linked vessels through the corridor in recent days.
Meanwhile, maritime intelligence firms report that overall traffic remains severely constrained, with only a handful of ships passing through at intervals. In a notable development, an Iranian tanker recently bypassed the chokepoint entirely, loading crude from a terminal east of Hormuz for delivery to China.
With benchmark crude prices hovering above $100 per barrel, the situation is likely to sustain upward pressure on global energy markets. For import-dependent economies like Nigeria, any prolonged disruption along the Hormuz corridor could translate into higher fuel costs and renewed volatility in domestic pricing.