Crude oil prices edged lower on Tuesday after reaching a three-week high the previous day. Traders are now watching closely as the United States prepares to impose new tariffs on Indian imports.
At the time of writing, Brent crude declined by $0.42, or 0.61%, to $68.38 per barrel, while WTI crude fell by $0.47, or 0.73%, to $64.33 per barrel as of the latest trade.
The decline came ahead of Washington’s plan to add an extra 25% duty on Indian exports starting Wednesday, which doubles the current levy. President Donald Trump pushed the measure as part of his effort to reduce India’s reliance on Russian crude.
Analysts Warn of Global Oil Market Fallout
However, experts believe the move could backfire. In an opinion piece for the Financial Times, Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects argued that disrupting India’s crude buying patterns might tighten supply and drive up prices worldwide, with ripple effects for U.S. inflation.
“Indian imports of Russian crude average anywhere between 1.5–2 million barrels a day, based on OilX data,” Sen wrote. “If this were stopped overnight and India had to buy elsewhere, oil prices would jump massively and inflation would be pushed up in the US and elsewhere. For the oil market, the question is: does Trump have the stomach to raise prices on US consumers?”
Her warning highlights the risk that Washington’s policy could harm American consumers while trying to pressure India.
India Stands Firm on Energy Security
Meanwhile, India has made its position clear: it will continue to buy oil based on price and availability. Speaking to Russian news agency TASS, Indian Ambassador Vinay Kumar emphasized that New Delhi’s priority is ensuring energy security for its 1.4 billion citizens.
“We have clearly stated that our objective is energy security of 1.4 billion people of India, and India’s cooperation with Russia, as of several other countries, has helped to bring about stability in the oil market, global oil market,” Kumar said.
The diplomat added, “The trade takes place on a commercial basis. So if the basis of commercial transaction trade imports is right, Indian companies will continue buying from wherever they get the best deal. So that’s what the current situation is.”
India’s stance shows that its decisions remain driven by economics, not politics. As a result, the standoff underscores the clash between U.S. geopolitical pressure and the realities of global energy demand.