Global oil supply could shrink by nearly 7 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, the World Bank has warned, in what could become the sharpest quarterly supply drop since the COVID-19 oil crash.
In its April 2026 Commodity Market Outlook, the World Bank said global oil supply is projected to fall to 98.4 million barrels per day in the second quarter, a 6.6 per cent decline from the same period last year. The bank said the drop would be the steepest quarterly fall recorded since the pandemic disrupted global energy markets.
The warning is tied largely to rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes. A large share of globally traded crude passes through the narrow waterway, and any disruption there quickly removes supply from the market and pushes prices higher.
The World Bank said the supply squeeze could leave the oil market short by about 3.7 million barrels per day in the second quarter, which would be the largest supply deficit ever recorded. That means global demand is expected to stay well ahead of available crude, leaving the market tighter and more vulnerable to sudden price spikes.
Checks by Petroleumprice.ng show the scale of the projected shortfall leaves little room for supply shocks. If flows from the Middle East weaken further, oil prices could rise sharply again, especially with buyers already competing for fewer available barrels.
The report also said total global oil supply for the full year is expected to fall by 1.5 million barrels per day, with OPEC+ accounting for most of the decline. Output from the producer group is projected to drop by nearly 5 per cent this year as earlier shutdowns, weaker exports and production cuts continue to weigh on supply.
Outside OPEC+, the World Bank expects only limited growth. Production from non-OPEC countries, led by the United States, is expected to rise by about 500,000 barrels per day, but that increase is too small to cover losses from the Middle East and key OPEC producers.
For Nigeria, the warning comes at a delicate time. Crude production improved to 1.84 million barrels per day in March, but output remains below government targets and still faces familiar problems including oil theft, pipeline vandalism and ageing infrastructure.
Higher crude prices could lift export earnings and support government revenue, but tighter global supply also brings risk. A stronger oil market may improve dollar inflows, but it can also raise domestic fuel costs, increase pressure on inflation and complicate fiscal planning.
The World Bank expects supply conditions to improve later in the year if tensions ease, but for now the oil market is entering the second quarter with less crude, weaker buffers and a higher risk of another price surge.