Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed its forecast for Brent crude oil to average $64 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, even as recent geopolitical and economic developments inject fresh uncertainty into global oil markets.
In a note shared with clients and quoted by Reuters, the investment bank acknowledged that tightening U.S. sanctions on Russia and Iran could elevate supply-side risks, but said its baseline scenario still supports a relatively moderate price environment.
“Rising sanctions pressure, especially on Russian and Iranian oil flows, poses upside risk to prices,” Goldman analysts noted. “But faster normalization of spare capacity and weaker-than-expected demand growth cap those risks.”
U.S. Tariff Threats Stir Supply-Demand Uncertainty
Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a warning that oil importers of Russian origin could face 100% tariffs unless Moscow halts military operations in Ukraine. While the move has unsettled traders, major buyers like China and India—which together absorb a significant share of Russian exports—have signaled no intent to cut back purchases.
Goldman Sachs analysts believe that such secondary sanctions and tariffs could ultimately depress oil demand, estimating a potential demand reduction of 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) between 2025 and 2026. The investment bank also flagged sluggish U.S. economic activity and a growing risk of recession as key downside factors.
“The U.S. economy is now operating below its potential, and recession risks have risen since our last projection,” the analysts wrote.
OPEC+ Likely to Hold Output Steady Amid Stockpile Growth
On the supply side, Goldman Sachs expects the OPEC+ alliance to maintain its current production quotas beyond September. Despite the group’s recent decision to raise output by 547,000 bpd for the coming month—following a similar increase in August—analysts anticipate that seasonal demand support will fade and OECD commercial stockpiles will grow, limiting further price upside.
The cumulative supply restoration plan aims to bring back approximately 2.5 million bpd by September, equivalent to about 2.4% of global oil demand. However, the pace of actual market rebalancing remains uncertain due to geopolitical risks, macroeconomic headwinds, and muted demand in key regions.